World gold prices are in a favorable position in the context of a polarized world, when central banks prioritize holding gold instead of USD as the main reserve asset, Deutsche Bank stated in a research report just sent to customers.
The German bank forecasts that central banks, especially in emerging economies, will continue to sharply increase gold reserves to hedge against financial risks in the face of sanctions from the West.
Deutsche Bank estimates that central banks have added more than 225 million ounces of gold to reserves since the global financial crisis in 2008, while the proportion of USD holdings has decreased from a peak of 60% in the early 2000s to about 40% today.
Analysts say that gold buying activity is not only limited to Russia, India and China but also extends to countries such as Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kazakhstan. This trend shows that the proportion of gold in the central bank's reserves may increase from the current 30% to 40%.
If this scenario occurs, Deutsche Bank believes that world gold prices could reach 8,000 USD/ounce in the next 5 years, equivalent to an increase of about 80% compared to the present.
This forecast is consistent with the "dedollarization" trend, as confidence in USD-valued assets decreases. Factors such as economic and geopolitical instability are driving central banks to increase gold stockpiling.
Meanwhile, commodity experts from the World Bank (WB) believe that gold prices may fluctuate in a narrow range in 2026. Gold prices ended Q1/2026 with an increase of 17%, while silver prices increased sharply by 55% compared to the previous quarter.
The increase in gold and silver has slowed down in recent months due to rising energy prices and concerns about inflation in the context of conflict in the Middle East. However, the World Bank still forecasts 2026 to continue to be a year of strong growth for gold prices because the general price level is high.
According to forecasts, the average gold price in 2026 may reach about 4,700 USD/ounce, then decrease by about 7% in 2027. Silver prices are also forecast to have a similar trend, with an average of about 70 USD/ounce this year.
Because precious metal prices are very sensitive to global risk psychology, speculative demand and macroeconomic conditions, the outlook is still potentially uncertain. In general, risks for the underlying scenario still lean towards an upward trend. If global trade tensions increase again or the financial market fluctuates sharply, safe-haven cash flow may flow into gold and silver, pushing prices above current forecasts" - analysts noted.
The World Bank believes that the biggest drag on gold prices is still high inflation, in the context of rapidly increasing energy and commodity prices.
In general, the World Bank warns that the risk of price reduction may be significant, especially if the gold speculation wave increases sharply from the beginning of 2025 and reverses due to profit-taking and portfolio restructuring activities.
