According to a report by HSBC's foreign exchange and commodity strategy expert Rodolphe Bohn, the gold market has experienced strong fluctuations since the beginning of 2026, when gold prices fell from about 5,415 USD/ounce to 4,400 USD at the end of March due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
During this period, oil prices fluctuated sharply, the USD became the main safe haven asset, bond yields rose and stocks fell. This made gold not play a clear "safe haven" role as usual, as many investors sold gold to increase liquidity.
However, HSBC believes this trend is only short-term. When tensions temporarily subside, the market becomes more stable, gold prices may rebound quickly.
Gold and oil: The relationship is no longer fixed
HSBC believes that the relationship between gold and oil prices is now more flexible than before. In some periods, these two types of assets may increase together, but in geopolitical shocks, they go in opposite directions.
When the USD rose sharply, both gold and oil were under pressure, but the oil supply shock in the Middle East caused gold to be sold for cash.
This shows that in the current environment, gold prices no longer react simply as a traditional geopolitical shield.
Interest rates do not decrease but gold is still supported
An important point emphasized by HSBC is monetary policy, especially interest rates and real yields.
Expert Rodolphe Bohn believes that high real yields are often detrimental to gold because this precious metal does not generate profits. However, in the current context, the long-term bond market, the strong USD and volatile oil prices are making gold more sensitive to macroeconomic risks.
Although HSBC does not expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates soon, the bank still believes that slow growth pressure and the risk of an inflationary trough will continue to support gold demand.
Central bank demand and supply
HSBC also noted that the gold buying demand of central banks has cooled down compared to the 2022-2024 period, but the trend of diversifying foreign exchange reserves is still there.
In the opposite direction, the supply of gold from mining and recycling is expected to increase slightly, while jewelry demand weakens due to high prices. This makes the market more sensitive to investment capital flows.
Gold is still in a long-term upward trend
HSBC concluded that the developments of gold prices in the short term are heavily dependent on Middle East tensions, oil prices and yields. However, in the medium and long term, factors such as geopolitical risks, budget deficits and expectations of lower interest rates than reality will continue to maintain a positive trend for gold.
This bank maintains an optimistic view on gold prices in the medium and long term, despite the fact that interest rate policies may not change soon.
World gold prices traded at 2:00 PM on April 21st Vietnam time at 4,779.07 USD/ounce, down 31.40 USD, equivalent to 0.65%.
Regarding domestic gold prices in the Vietnamese market, SJC gold bar prices are traded at 168.1 - 170.6 million VND/tael (buying - selling). Bao Tin Minh Chau 9999 gold ring prices are traded at 167.6 - 170.6 million VND/tael (buying - selling).
