The global gold market is facing the risk of strong fluctuations as demand for physical gold from central banks, especially China, continues to increase strongly.
According to the latest report from French bank Societe Generale, commodity analysts are closely monitoring the trend, worrying that the gold fever could be similar to the recent fluctuations in silver and platinum.
Over the past three years, global central banks have increased their gold reserves by about 1,000 tons per year. This year, although demand is expected to decrease slightly, the World Gold Council still predicts that total gold reserves may increase by 950 tons, far exceeding the long-term average.
Experts from Societe Generale warn that even a 1% shift in asset reserves is enough to cause a gold fever.
China, as the leader of the gold market, will be the main factor in this trend.
If central banks reallocate an additional 1% of their total reserves to gold without selling foreign assets, total demand for gold from China and other countries could reach 762 tons over the next 3 years, equivalent to 64 tons per quarter - nearly the hypothetical level in the Societe Generale gold forecast model.
These figures become even more remarkable as official gold demand is often not fully announced. According to the World Gold Council, 66% of central bank gold purchases in the third quarter of 2025 have not been reported.
Due to the " blurred" nature of the data, analysts had to estimate based on many different sources, such as data on gold exports from the UK to other countries.
September data showed that UK gold exports increased by 55.4 tons, 15 tons lower than the same period last year and decreased by 70 tons compared to the normal seasonal level. However, the fall in gold prices at the end of October has created a favorable opportunity for central banks to buy.
China alone imported 10 tonnes of gold from the UK in September, but only reported a 1 ton increase in official reserves. Company Generale estimates that China's total gold purchases this year could reach 250 tons, accounting for more than a third of global central bank demand for gold.
Experts warn that with increased economic and geopolitical fluctuations, central banks will continue to diversify their reserves into gold. If the gold fever really occurs, the market could see new, surprising prices and great pressure on investors around the world.
The world gold price at 6:30 p.m. on November 19, Vietnam time, was trading at 4,113.93 USD/ounce, up 47.82 USD, equivalent to an increase of 1.18%.
Regarding domestic gold prices, SJC gold bar prices are trading at 149.5 - 151 million VND/tael (buy - sell).
The price of 9999 Bao Tin Minh Chau gold rings is trading around 148.3 - 151.3 million VND/tael (buy - sell).
