Although there are still many stages ahead, the strong increase last weekend is a reminder that betting against gold in 2026 may be a risky option, especially in the context of global instability that has not cooled down.
For more than 1 year, the world has continuously been submerged in unpredictable fluctuations. Just one message on social networks can stir up the financial market. In that environment, although gold prices fluctuate sharply in the highlands, this is still a widely recognized safe haven asset, regardless of geopolitical risks from third parties.
Gold price movements in recent weeks have made a part of investors and analysts more cautious in the short term. However, very few opinions believe that gold has peaked. The strong correction at the end of January did not change the long-term trend as many large organizations continued to raise expectations.
UBS Bank forecasts gold prices could reach 6,200 USD/ounce by mid-2026. BMO believes a convincing price increase scenario could push the precious metal up to nearly 6,500 USD.
AuAg Funds believes that the $6,000 mark could be reached this year, despite strong fluctuations. More cautiously, ANZ Bank forecasts gold prices to reach $5,800/ounce in the second quarter.
These are not short-term news traders, but financial institutions adjusting long-term assumptions. Price targets are built on the foundation of persistent gold buying demand from central banks, structurally high budget deficits, persistent inflation risks and a geopolitical context that shows no signs of normalization.
Along with that are uncertainties surrounding the direction of US monetary policy, causing many investors not to want to stand in opposition to gold.
However, the path upwards is unlikely to be smooth. The market has witnessed leverage positions being quickly fled, especially in silver - where the 20-30% fluctuation is not assumed but has occurred in reality. High prices often lead to large fluctuations, as speculative positions become crowded and increasing momentum gradually become unsustainable.
However, adjustment does not mean creating a peak. The fact that gold prices remain firm around 5,000 USD/ounce shows that the support level has been raised.
Throughout the past year, each deep decline has attracted bottom-fishing buying power, when investors see it as an opportunity instead of a signal to retreat. This behavior reflects a change in the way investment portfolios are built, instead of just short-term speculative sentiment.
The 6,000 or 6,500 USD/ounce mark can be seen as ambitious, but the core question is what can reverse the current momentum. A sustainable return of fiscal discipline, geopolitical reconciliation and long-term confidence in monetary policy could change the situation. Currently, those conditions are still more hopeful than realistic.
Until the unstable picture changes clearly, betting heavily on the scenario of gold prices falling deeply - especially before sensitive times - is still considered a high-risk option compared to expected profits.
World gold prices closed last week at 5,160.68 USD/ounce, up 128.13 USD, equivalent to an increase of 2.57%.
Regarding domestic gold prices in the Vietnamese market, SJC gold bar prices and Bao Tin Minh Chau 9999 gold ring prices traded around 178 - 181 million VND/tael (buying - selling).
