Gold and silver are entering a price increase cycle likened to "one-of-a-kind", but the Swedish portfolio manager warns investors to prepare mentally for fluctuations of up to 30% before the precious metals reach new highs.
In the 2026 outlook report released last week, Swedish fund management company AuAg Funds said they expect gold prices to break through decisively above 6,000 USD/ounce this year. At the same time, silver prices are forecast to reach 133 USD/ounce, thereby bringing the gold/silver ratio back to the multi-year low of 45 recorded last month.
This outlook is given in the context that gold prices once jumped to nearly 5,600 USD/ounce in January, then plummeted 20%. After testing the support zone around 4,400 USD/ounce, gold has gradually rebalanced around the 5,000 USD/ounce mark.
According to AuAg Funds, in a rising market, 20-30% adjustments are something that investors need to be familiar with. Experts say these are often intentional adjustments when the market becomes too "hot".
Large short selling positions are used to pull prices down, causing speculators to leave the market and weak investors to sell out. Meanwhile, buyers are often the "big guys" who initiated the decline, in order to find attractive entry points for the next upward cycle.
Despite warning of strong volatility, AuAg still sees solid structural drivers behind the upward momentum of precious metals. The company noted that total global debt continues to expand, currently approaching the $350 trillion mark.
According to analysts, it is only a matter of time before this huge debt is "monetarized", meaning that central banks - led by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) - will cut interest rates and simultaneously launch new quantitative easing packages to curb long-term yields.
AuAg believes that in the context of gradually eroding confidence in the USD and the ongoing trend of currency dilution, gold continues to play the role of an attractive global alternative currency. As fiscal and monetary policy are strongly easing at the same time, and the bond market is becoming increasingly unpredictable, capital flows are said to be accelerating to pivot to gold thanks to high profit potential, low correlation with stocks and no partner risk.
According to the fund's analysis, in the long term, gold prices react to the amount of legal tender generated exceeding the actual economic growth rate.
They emphasize that real growth does not mean announced GDP figures, because modern GDP calculation includes many inefficient expenditures that are still recognized as growth. When countries print more money but generate less real output per unit of debt, gold tends to increase in price faster.
Meanwhile, silver is assessed to have more room. AuAg believes that silver prices can completely double in the current environment. In addition to its role as a currency, silver is also supported by strong industrial demand.
After many years of supply-to-demand deficit, the silver market is approaching the risk of material shortages that could significantly impact the price formation process.
World gold price at 7:15 am on February 22 Vietnam time traded at 5,160.68 USD/ounce, up 128.13 USD, equivalent to an increase of 2.57%.
Regarding domestic gold prices in the Vietnamese market, SJC gold bar prices and Bao Tin Minh Chau 9999 gold ring prices are currently listed around 178 - 181 million VND/tael (buying - selling).
