On February 3, US President Donald Trump announced that he had reached a trade agreement with India. Accordingly, New Delhi pledged to stop importing crude oil from Russia to switch to purchasing from the US and Venezuela.
However, the reality at sea is drawing a completely different picture. Data from Kpler - a global analysis and data company - shows that the Russian oil-carrying "dark fleet" is still operating at full capacity at Indian ports.
4 oil tankers of this fleet are in the process or preparing to unload cargo. Giannis ship is pumping Urals oil at the Chennai refinery; Nyxora ship at Paradip; Tiburon ship at Vadinar. Seasons I ship was recorded anchored outside Vadinar port on the morning of February 3.
This phenomenon shows a huge challenge in controlling the global "dark fleet", which is estimated to have a scale of more than 1,400 ships.
These ships are using increasingly sophisticated tricks to circumvent the law. Instead of docking directly at ports, they switch to carrying out transshipment operations from ships to ships right in the middle of the ocean and turning off positioning devices to "disappear" from Western raids.
Although enforcement measures are being tightened, the flow of sanctioned oil still finds its way. Recently, France arrested the Grinch oil tanker carrying Russian oil with a fake Comorian flag, but this is only a small part of the big picture.
In 2025, Russian oil accounted for 33% of India's total oil imports by sea. Cutting off this supply immediately is a difficult problem.
Kremlin officials have also denied information from the US, claiming they have not received any official notification from India about stopping oil purchases. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not yet publicly confirmed the terms that Mr. Trump announced.
Energy experts believe that if India really closes down on Russian oil, Moscow will be forced to look for new buyers, likely China, with even deeper discounts.
Kevin Book - CEO at ClearView Energy Partners - said that the shadow fleet is very flexible. "The ships that used to carry Venezuelan oil will now switch to carrying Iranian and Russian oil. As long as sanctions exist, these ghost ships will still find ways to circumvent the law to bring cheap oil barrels to buyers," he said.
