War can significantly slow down Iran's nuclear program, but cannot completely erase this capability - that is the noteworthy assessment of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi in an interview with CBS News.
According to Mr. Rafael Grossi, military attacks have caused Iran's nuclear program to decline significantly. However, that does not mean a long-term solution. "When the war ends, we still have to face a series of major problems," he emphasized.
One of the most serious problems is the 60% enriched uranium that Iran possesses - a threshold considered very close to the level needed to make nuclear weapons. This material stockpile did not disappear after the war, and controlling it would be a major challenge for the international community.
Not only that, IAEA officials have also not been able to accurately determine the extent of damage to Iranian nuclear facilities, as inspectors have not been allowed to return to the scene. This means that many important infrastructures still exist, even intact.
A more worrying point, according to Mr. Grossi, is the "knowledge" factor. Even if facilities are destroyed, Iran can still rebuild quickly. He likened the restoration of nuclear facilities to "making a sophisticated washing machine" - meaning no longer needing to research from the beginning. "You can't forget what you've learned," he said.
In that context, the US and Israel have considered a special option: Deploying forces to seize Iran's enriched uranium. However, Mr. Grossi expressed skepticism about the feasibility of this scenario.
According to him, uranium in the form of highly enriched hexafluoride uranium gas is an extremely dangerous and difficult material to handle. Transportation or seizure requires special techniques and conditions, not to mention the possibility of the existence of "baits" to mislead.
I'm not saying it's impossible, but it will definitely be an extremely complex campaign," he said.
Meanwhile, Mr. John Bolton - former National Security Advisor to President Donald Trump - gave a tougher stance. He believes that any military campaign against Iran will "not be considered successful" if the amount of nuclear material is not controlled.
Mr. Bolton also warned of the risk of this uranium falling into the hands of armed groups or "unruly" countries, increasing global security risks.
Although acknowledging that this is not an easy task, Mr. Bolton believes that the seizure of nuclear material is still an option being considered. This shows that the Iranian problem does not only stop at the battlefield, but also extends in post-conflict strategic calculations.
The message from the IAEA is clear: bombs and bullets can destroy nuclear facilities, but cannot erase knowledge. And as long as Iran holds both nuclear knowledge and materials, the Iranian nuclear problem will not have a final solution.
