The World Bank said that global production this year is expected to increase by 2.6%, almost unchanged from 2.7% last year, and this rate may be maintained until 2027. This assessment is stated in a periodic global economic assessment report twice a year, released on January 13 in Washington.
However, in the context of prolonged instability in trade policy and armed conflict, the World Bank believes that global economic growth risks are lower than forecast, which is prevailing.
The report noted that the 2020s are forming the weakest growth period of the world economy since the 1960s, a period when the world was deeply divided between East and West while the US began to enter a period of prolonged high inflation.
Since the pandemic, global growth has clearly shifted to a lower level," Indermit Gill, chief economist at the World Bank, emphasized in the report.
The slowdown compared to growth of over 3% per year before the pandemic is causing particularly serious damage to developing economies. About 1/4 of these countries, mainly in Africa, currently have lower per capita incomes than before the pandemic, while almost all developed economies record higher incomes.
The more positive global economic outlook this time reflects an upward adjustment compared to the forecast given by the World Bank in June, in which about 2/3 of the forecast increase comes from a more optimistic assessment of the US economy.
The World Bank has raised the US growth forecast for this year to 2.2%, compared to 1.6% set 6 months ago. Tax incentives, along with many other factors in President Donald Trump's fiscal policy package, are supporting US economic growth.
This new forecast is significantly more positive than the warnings issued by economists after President Donald Trump's widespread tax announcement in April. However, the World Bank believes that these import tariffs this year will increasingly reduce investment and consumer spending, thereby slowing down the US economy in 2027, to below the potential growth rate of the economy without causing inflation.
Last year, the US economy grew at a rate of 2.1%, much higher than the 1.4% forecast by the World Bank in June 2025, partly thanks to a boom in spending on devices and infrastructure related to artificial intelligence. However, this result is still lower than in 2024, when the US economy grew by 2.8%.
This year, the US economy is forecast to grow significantly faster than the eurozone and Japan, as both economies are forecast to grow below 1%. China, a country still suffering prolonged impacts from the real estate bubble, is forecast to slow down, from 4.9% last year to 4.4% this year and to 4.2% in 2027.
Wall Street's similar forecast now suggests that the global economy will grow by about 2.5% this year, close to the World Bank's estimate. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs economists are more optimistic, based on positive results from the US and China and forecasts that global growth may reach 2.8%.
