According to ADB's leading annual economic publication published on September 30, the organization forecasts that inflation will be adjusted down slightly compared to the forecasts released in April. The wave of increased exports before the US imposed new tariffs and the Government's support policies have boosted economic growth in the first half of 2025.
However, growth is expected to slow down for the rest of the year due to the impact of counterpart tariffs effective from August 7. Although the domestic economy remains stable, growth is expected to slow down compared to the strong breakthrough in the first half of 2025.
Mr. Shantanu Chakraborty - ADB's country director in Vietnam, commented: "Better coordination between effective implementation of fiscal and monetary policies will help avoid putting excessive pressure on monetary institutions and ensure macroeconomic stability.
In the long term, comprehensive legal reforms need to address structural challenges such as ensuring climate change adaptation, promoting the competitiveness of the private sector, improving the efficiency of state-owned enterprises, modernizing the tax system and digital transformation. These are key factors for a more balanced growth model.
The US counterpart tariffs applied to Vietnam 20% for imported goods and 40% for transit goods pose risks of economic growth decline in the short term. In the rest of the year, these tariffs are expected to impact trade and investment, emphasizing the urgency of restructuring to promote a more balanced growth model, supported by stronger domestic demand and more diverse export markets to reduce shocks related to tariffs.
Inflation is forecast to reach 3.9% in 2025 and decrease slightly to 3.8% in 2026. The decline in global energy prices has contributed to reducing transportation costs - a factor that accounts for a significant proportion of consumer goods.
While maintaining a positive outlook for Vietnam in the 2025-2026 period, the report "Asia Development outlook for September 2025" also highlights a number of risks stemming from both global and domestic uncertainties.
If the global economic environment is worse than expected due to slowing growth of major trading partners and increased financial market fluctuations the challenge for the economy will increase. In the country, although public investment reforms have brought initial results, increased financial risks and delays in policy coordination may limit the effectiveness of growth stimulus measures.
