With the theme "Steadfastly overcoming storms", VPBank Securities Joint Stock Company organized the VPBankS Talk 4 seminar attracting the participation of prestigious experts, business representatives, and experienced investors in the fields of macro and banking.
Economic picture in 2024: Not an "easy" year
In the volatile international context with a series of unpredictable developments such as escalating geopolitical tensions, the US Federal Reserve (FED) unexpectedly lowering interest rates for the first time in 4 years and the dramatic race to the White House, these factors have contributed to creating a challenging investment environment, especially for short-term investors.
In addition to economic factors, Mr. Vu Huu Dien, Chairman of the Board of Directors and General Director of VPBank Securities Joint Stock Company (VPBankS) pointed out optimistic signals about the macro economy that investors and businesses can expect from market developments in 2025. In particular, GDP in the third quarter of 2024 increased by 7.1% and the whole year is expected to reach a growth rate of about 7%. In addition, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has remained above 50 points in recent months, indicating economic recovery. Profits of listed companies in the first 9 months of the year also grew by about 20% over the same period.
Towards a "bright" 2025
Regarding economic prospects, for 2025, experts predict that Vietnam's economy may face many risks and challenges, however, there are many opportunities and advantages ahead. In particular, our country's economy is an open economy, heavily dependent on exports and foreign direct investment (FDI), which can be affected by fluctuations from major economies as well as emerging markets. Accordingly, experts predict that Vietnam's GDP in 2025 will fluctuate between 6.6-6.8%.
Mr. Tran Hoang Son, Director of Market Strategy at VPBank Securities Joint Stock Company (VPBankS), commented: "The return of Mr. Donald Trump to the White House with the 2.0 tariff policy taking place in the 2025-2028 period is not simply a trade issue but also incorporates political and social factors. The 47th US President will use tariff policy and "weaponize" this policy to reach agreements that are beneficial to the United States. At that time, the exchange rate will be the first factor affected."
Regarding the outlook for the domestic stock market, after experiencing the bottom phase, the stock market is in the "reaction phase" and is expected to have "shakes" in late 2024 and early 2025. This is considered the period of creating a historic "new accumulation zone", expected to be a wave of market upgrading in the period of 2025.
Associate Professor Dr. Pham The Anh, Head of the Faculty of Economics, National Economics University (NEU), Chief Economist of the Vietnam Center for Economic and Strategic Studies (VESS), said: "Upgrading the market is just a condition, a catalyst to attract capital, besides stable economic growth. The important factor is the interest rate level, especially the US interest rate policy. If US interest rates decrease sharply, capital will flow into emerging markets, including Vietnam."
