The latest weather forecast from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on February 25 said that La Nina is still present in the tropical Pacific region but is expected to weaken in the coming months, with the possibility of transitioning to neutral ENSO conditions by the end of summer.
At the 193rd Climate Forum, Dr. Joseph Basconcillo - Head of Climate Monitoring and Forecasting at PAGASA - said that climate models indicate that the probability of transition from La Nina to neutral ENSO conditions in the period March-April-April 2026 is 60%.
Neutral ENSO conditions prevail when no La Nina or El Nino is present.
According to PAGASA weather experts, neutral conditions are expected to continue from June to August.
Based on PAGASA's long-term forecast for the period March to August 2026, in March, most of the Luzon region had rainfall lower to much lower than the average, with Southern Luzon as an exception.
Meanwhile, Mindanao is forecast to have above-normal rainfall in March, and the remaining areas of the Philippines may have near-normal rainfall.
By April, rainfall near normal levels is forecast to occur throughout the Philippines, although there may still be below-normal rainfall in some areas of Luzon and Visayas.
In May, rainfall is forecast to increase in some areas, with rainfall above normal likely to occur in Palawan, most of the regions of Visayas and northeastern Mindanao.
From June to July, rainfall is expected to be near normal in most of the Philippines, coinciding with the start and strengthening of the southwest monsoon.
By August, rainfall is still expected to be near normal in most areas, with some isolated areas having below-normal rainfall.
PAGASA said that rainfall will be more concentrated in the western Philippines in June and July, in line with the southwest monsoon pattern.
PAGASA storm forecasters predict that 6 to 14 tropical storms may form in or enter the forecast area of the Philippines from March to August 2026.
