The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) announced on February 9 that recent ocean and atmospheric conditions indicate that La Nina has formed in the tropical Pacific region.
Mr. Nathaniel Servando - head of PAGASA - cited data collected from September 2025 showing that sea surface temperatures in the middle and equatorial Pacific regions began to decrease, then continued to decrease further in November of the same year, reaching the threshold of a weak La Nina wave.
Based on the latest forecast, La Nina is likely to last until the end of the first quarter of 2026," he shared.
Mr. Servando explained that weak La Nina conditions are determined when the average monthly sea surface temperature difference decreases from -0.5 degrees Celsius or below.
La Nina is often associated with more than average rainfall in most areas of the Philippines in the last quarter of the year and the following months of the year.
With this development, the possibility of recording rainfall exceeding normal levels in the Philippines is forecast to last until the end of February 2026, increasing the risk of floods and landslides.
