The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said that at 2:00 p.m. on October 6, the center of low pressure area 10a (near the East Sea) was located at 12.2 degrees north latitude, 119.3 degrees east longitude, about 100km northwest of Coron, Palawan. The low pressure is located along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) affecting Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.
According to PAGASA's storm forecast, low pressure area 10a inside the Philippine Forecast Area (PAR) is unlikely to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours, as of 2:00 p.m. on October 6.
Meanwhile, another low pressure area (10b) outside the PAR is likely to strengthen into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours. At 2:00 p.m. on October 6, the center of the low pressure was at about 17.8 degrees north latitude, 145.6 degrees east longitude, 2,525 km east of Northern Luzon.
Previously, PAGASA forecasted that 4 to 7 storms will form within or enter PAR in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Two or three storms are expected in October and one or two in November and December.
Most typhoons in October hit Luzon while typhoons in November and December mainly hit Bicol, Eastern Visayas and Eastern Mindanao.
The latest storm, Typhoon Julian (international name Typhoon No. 5 Krathon), is the 10th tropical storm to hit the Philippines in the 2024 typhoon season and the 6th tropical storm in September.
On October 4, Typhoon Julian weakened into a low pressure area and was outside the PAR.
A total of nearly 92,000 households (more than 317,000 people) in 950 villages in the Philippines were affected by Typhoon Julian.
Meanwhile, according to the October storm forecast of the Vietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea and affecting the mainland of Vietnam are likely to be at a level close to or higher than the average of many years in the same period.
According to the average data of many years, in October there were 2 storms in the East Sea, 0.8 of which made landfall in Vietnam.
