Steve Hanke - one of the world's leading economists in the US, has just warned that Russia is sending a direct signal to the US and the West by temporarily suspending the issuance of export permits for ammonium nitrate fertilizer - an important nitrogen fertilizer - from March 21 to April 21.
Moscow explained this decision as prioritizing domestic spring planting needs, but according to Mr. Hanke, the timing and scope of this move clearly show the political message: the West must ease sanctions, otherwise, global fertilizer supply will be disrupted.
Russia controls about 40% of the global ammonium nitrate trade market share, causing the immediate suspension of exports to have a great impact on the global agricultural supply chain.
This decision takes place in the context of already strained global fertilizer supply. Iran's blockade of the Hormuz Strait - a transportation route accounting for nearly 24% of global ammonium trade - along with drone attacks on fertilizer plants in Smolensk and KuybyshevAzot have caused Russia's fertilizer production to decrease significantly, while fertilizer prices in the world market have increased by 27% as of March 2026, with nitrogen fertilizers experiencing the highest increase.
Mr. Hanke warned that although official sanctions do not ban fertilizer exports, practical barriers from the SWIFT banking system, payment difficulties and transportation insurance shortages have made Russia able to use fertilizer as an indirect economic weapon, putting pressure on the West to adjust policies if it wants to maintain global fertilizer flows.
