Russia's GDP could increase by 600 billion rubles ($6.5 billion) per decade if the country's average annual temperature rises by 1 degree Celsius , RT reported . Experts who conducted the study concluded that the agricultural and forestry sectors would benefit the most from global warming.
The findings of the report by the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IEF RAS) were presented at the forum " BRICS Climate Agenda in Modern Conditions" held in Moscow (Russia) on August 30.
On average, temperatures in Russia are rising by 0.5 degrees Celsius every 10 years, increasing the risk of extreme weather as well as creating challenges for the economy, according to Aleksandr Shirov, director of the IEF and one of the study's authors.
However, if an effective adaptation policy is implemented, the impacts of climate change can bring positive benefits to Russia, he said at the forum.
The study compared potential benefits and losses in different sectors of the economy, such as agriculture, mineral resource extraction, transport and construction. The losses from a 1 degree Celsius temperature increase across all sectors amounted to 2.45 trillion rubles ($26.8 billion), while the benefits totaled 3.64 trillion rubles ($39.8 billion).
The total impact of climate change on annual GDP in Russia is estimated at +1.2 trillion rubles (or 0.7% of recorded GDP by the end of 2023), the report said.
“Given the current trends in climate change, we can say that Russia’s annual GDP will increase by about 600 billion rubles ($6.5 billion) every 10 years,” the report said.
The main benefits, according to the research team, come from agriculture and forestry, and from the development of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) – a shipping waterway that runs along Russia's Arctic coast from Murmansk to the Bering Strait and the Far East.
“Many industries are involved in the work of the NSR – a megaproject, the development of which is closely linked to climate change,” the study notes, referring to melting and thinning ice that makes the east-west corridor more viable.
However, the researchers also urged measures to mitigate potential risks from climate change , such as further developing health care systems and “adaptive financing and insurance mechanisms,” as well as protecting ecosystems, buildings and structures from emergencies.
Russia is the world’s largest country, but an estimated two-thirds of its territory is covered by permafrost. The study also outlines top priority steps to reduce the impact of permafrost degradation due to climate change.
These steps include developing measures to stabilize soil temperature, providing temporary storage facilities for excess water, constructing and reinforcing dams, and reinforcing buildings and structures.
