The International Energy Agency (IEA) has slightly lowered its forecast for Russian gas production in 2026 to 683 billion m3, lower than the previous forecast of 687 billion m3.
According to the IEA Gas Market Report, Russia's gas production this year is expected to reach 683 billion m3, up from 663 billion m3 in 2025.
In the first 5 months of 2026, Russian gas production increased by more than 4%, equivalent to about 13 billion m3 compared to the same period last year. The main driving force comes from domestic demand, when the amount of gas supplied to the domestic market also increased by about 4% in this period.
In addition, the colder winter weather in the first quarter increased consumption demand, leading to higher supply output.
Previously, the Russian Federal Statistical Service (Rosstat) said that Russia's total gas production (including natural gas and companion gas from oil exploitation) in the period January-May 2026 reached 302 billion m3, an increase of 4.3% compared to the same period last year.
Also according to the IEA, in the first 6 months of 2026, Russia increased the amount of gas pipeline transported to the European Union (EU) by 5%, equivalent to 0.4 billion m3.
Russia's pipeline gas supply to the European Union increased by 5%, equivalent to 0.4 billion m3, compared to the same period last year in the first half of 2026. Meanwhile, in the first 5 months of 2026, Russia's gas exports to Turkey decreased by 4%, equivalent to 0.4 billion m3" - the report noted.
The IEA estimates that Russian pipeline gas will account for about 8% of Europe's total gas demand in the first half of 2026.
However, this agency also forecasts that the amount of Russian gas transported through pipelines to Europe will decrease in the second half of 2026, after measures restricting the import of Russian gas under short-term contracts took effect from June.
