World LNG giant at risk of relegation after Middle East conflict

Châu Anh |

Middle East conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are threatening Qatar's LNG export position.

Qatar is facing the risk of losing its position as the world's second largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) after attacks targeting energy infrastructure and disruptions to transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, seriously affecting the country's exports.

According to the International Gas Union (IGU), Qatar accounted for 18.7% of the global LNG market share in 2025, just surpassing Australia (18.4%) to regain second place. The US continues to lead the world with about 25% of global LNG exports, holding the number one position since 2023.

However, this situation may soon change.

Iran's attacks in March damaged the Ras Laffan complex, Qatar's largest natural gas-to-LNG processing center.

According to the Qatari government, the restoration process of this facility could take up to 5 years, while about 17% of LNG production capacity is expected to still have to stop operating in the near future.

This is considered one of the most serious losses that the Gulf energy industry has suffered in the recent conflict.

After the incident, QatarEnergy declared force majeure for many export contracts and continued to extend the delivery cancellation to the fourth month.

Not only suffering infrastructure damage, Qatar also faces difficulties in transportation due to prolonged instability in the Strait of Hormuz - a strategic shipping route that the country is completely dependent on for LNG exports.

Qatar currently does not have a replacement LNG transport route outside the Strait of Hormuz, causing all disruptions in this area to directly affect export activities.

Asia remains Qatar's largest LNG consumption market.

According to the Energy Institute, Qatar is India's main LNG supplier and meets nearly 1/3 of China's LNG imports.

In the context of supply being affected, many Asian countries have implemented energy-saving measures. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), India has implemented measures to limit the consumption of natural gas in industry, while some other countries are calling for reducing the use of air conditioners to save electricity.

IGU believes that the conflict in the Middle East has weakened the prospects of the global LNG market after 2025 - a year recording record trading volume.

Although Qatar still owns the third largest natural gas reserves in the world, only after Russia and Iran, and has planned to increase production from mid-2026, many expansion projects are currently considered to be behind schedule.

Châu Anh
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