The New START Nuclear arms Control Treaty - considered the last shield between the two superpowers - will expire on February 5, 2026.
TASS reported that speaking to the press at the White House before his trip to Scotland on July 25, Mr. Trump warned: "This is not the kind of deal that you want to let it expire. We are starting to work on that issue. When the nuclear limit is removed, it will be a big problem.
The New START Treaty (New Strategic arms Reduction Treaty) is the last remaining bilateral treaty between the United States and Russia to limit the number of nuclear warheads and launch vehicles.
signped in 2010 between US President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, the treaty is considered the gold standard for efforts to detach global nuclear weapons.
According to the terms of the treaty, both sides are committed to reducing the number of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), launched launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and heavy-duty vehicles to no more than 700 units, and limiting the total number of nuclear warheads deployed to 1,550. The total number of launchers, whether deployed or not, is limited to 800.
The treaty was originally valid for 10 years and was extended for another 5 years in February 2021. If there is no new agreement, the New START will officially end in early 2026 - a milestone that could mark the complete collapse of the strategic arms control mechanism between the world's two leading nuclear powers.
Trump's stance on arms control treaties during his first term was controversial. He withdrew the US from the 2019 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) - which prohibits short- and medium-range missiles launched from the ground - and the 2020 Open Skies - which allows unarmed surveillance flights between member states.
In response, Russia also withdrew from the two treaties, accusing the US of stepping away from destroying the global arms control system for unilateral strategic benefits.
However, in the context of increasingly unstable global security, especially after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, President Trump seems to be changing direction. I want to dialogue with both Russia and China on cutting down on nuclear weapons stockpiles. That is necessary for the world, Trump said during a campaign, although he has not made any specific initiatives.
On the Russian side, the Kremlin has not ruled out resuming negotiations. Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov affirmed in early 2025: "Dialogue on arms control with the US is necessary, especially in the field of strategic stability".
However, Mr. Peskov emphasized the prerequisite: "To have dialogue, it is necessary to restore an appropriate level of trust, which the Biden administration has completely broken."
With Russia-US relations still tense, the possibility of the two sides sitting at the negotiation table for a short time is still a big question mark. However, without a breakthrough, the world would face the prospect of no legal barrier to limit the increasingly modern and dangerous nuclear arsenal of both superpowers.
