On February 20, the US Supreme Court concluded that Mr. Trump had exceeded his authority by applying widespread tariffs to goods from most countries, based on the International Emergency Economic Act (IEEPA). However, just hours later, at a press conference at the White House, Mr. Trump announced that he would continue to pursue a tariff policy, but this time "within the framework of law".
The first step was taken on February 20: Applying a 10% tariff on all imports under Article 122 of a 1974 trade law. On the morning of February 21, Mr. Trump announced raising this tariff to 15%.
If the Supreme Court's ruling closes more than 1 year that President Trump can unilaterally impose, amend or remove taxes with just a notice on social media, new questions will reappear. Will the government repay more than $134 billion in collected taxes? If so, what are the procedures and time? Will new tax rates continue to be sued?
The US Department of Justice previously stated the possibility of refunds if the tax is rejected. However, after the ruling, Mr. Trump warned that importers and the government may continue to argue for years about the tax refund issue.
Lawyer Neal Katyal - who is involved in the lawsuit against tax policy - questioned the legality of the new 15% tariff, saying that large-scale tariff measures need to be approved by Congress.
According to trade experts, the possibility of prolonged lawsuits may cause some businesses to sell tax refunds to speculative funds to get cash immediately, accepting discounts. When the government pays, these funds will enjoy the difference.
Mr. Trump's new strategy is described as a "double punch": 15% global tax has a maximum validity of 150 days, in parallel with separate tax rates by industry or by country for national security reasons and anti-unfair trade. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that this year's revenue may still be equivalent to the initial plan.
However, analysts doubt that the implementation speed will be as fast as expected. The emergency tax lifting may create a short-term stimulus effect. But it also raises concerns about inflation returning, in the context that the core consumer spending index is at 3%/year.
Regarding trade, the third adjustment of the tariff schedule in more than a year will create winners and losers. Although not enough for businesses to shift production, this change may make imports temporarily cheaper, increasing trade deficits.
In the context that the US economy grew by only 1.4% in the last quarter of 2025 and a budget deficit of nearly 6% of GDP, tariffs are still a significant source of revenue. In January alone, the Treasury Department collected about 28 billion USD from import taxes.
However, polls show that the majority of US voters oppose tariffs, with a ratio of nearly 2-1. On Wall Street, the market reacted quite calmly to the ruling, but observers believe that the long-term impact is still unpredictable.
The Supreme Court - with a majority of conservative judges - rejecting the argument that the president can impose taxes "on any country, product, tax rate and time" marks a clear limit to executive power. With reduced authority, Mr. Trump returned to the tools that Congress empowers more clearly. At the press conference, he admitted that the new path "is probably the direction to go from the beginning". But for businesses and investors, one thing is clear: US tariff incertitude is not over yet.
