Prospects for an Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement

Song Minh |

Hamas is expected to hand over 33 hostages to Israel in the first phase of a ceasefire deal being finalized.

It is the first positive sign in months that a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war may be near.

Negotiators met in Doha, Qatar, on January 14 to finalize the details of a ceasefire agreement after US President Joe Biden said the ceasefire and hostage release deal he had championed was “close” to happening, Reuters reported. Qatari mediators presented Israel and Hamas with a final draft of the agreement on January 13, following a midnight “breakthrough” in talks attended by envoys from both outgoing President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump.

Officials expressed cautious optimism that a deal would be announced soon, ending 15 months of fighting that has destabilized the Middle East and devastated Gaza, CNN reported.

According to the Israeli government, Hamas and its allies are still holding 94 of the 251 hostages, of whom at least 34 have died.

During the first phase of the 42-day deal, 33 hostages are expected to be released, including survivors and the bodies of the victims.

On the 16th day of the ceasefire, negotiations will begin in phase two, in which the remaining living hostages will be released and the bodies of the dead hostages will be returned.

Mot tu nhan Palestine duoc doan tu voi gia dinh tai thanh pho Al-Bireh o Bo Tay, ngay 26.11.2023. Anh: Xinhua
A Palestinian prisoner is reunited with his family in the West Bank city of Al-Bireh, November 26, 2023. Photo: Xinhua

The deal will also see a phased withdrawal, with Israeli forces remaining at the border to protect Israeli border towns and villages. There will be security measures in the Philadelphia corridor, along the southern edge of Gaza, and Israel will withdraw from some areas after the first few days of the deal.

A senior Israeli official confirmed that the parties are close to an agreement and Israel is ready to implement it as soon as the document is signed.

US President Joe Biden expressed similar optimism, affirming that the US is working to promote this process.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the ball was in Hamas' court. For its part, Hamas also expressed its desire to reach an agreement.

If successful, the ceasefire would cap more than a year of ongoing negotiations and result in the largest release of Israeli hostages since the early days of the conflict, when Hamas freed about half its prisoners in exchange for 240 Palestinians held by Israel.

The inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump on January 20 is now seen as the practical deadline for a ceasefire. Mr Trump has said there will be “serious consequences” if the hostages held by Hamas are not released before he takes office.

Despite the positive signs, experts warn that the presence of Israeli and Hamas troops in Gaza during the initial phase of the agreement could increase the risk of renewed conflict. “This is a very sensitive phase because there is a potential risk of renewed fighting,” former Israeli intelligence official Avi Melamed stressed.

The war in Gaza has taken a heavy toll. Since October 7, 2023, at least 46,565 Palestinians have been killed and more than 100,000 injured, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health.

Song Minh
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