Middle East before a new spiral of conflict

Ngạc Ngư |

The conflict between the US and Iran has escaped the scope of the pure confrontation between the US and Iran. It has become a form of "great fire" in the Middle East, North Africa and the Gulf region. Arab countries in the Gulf, Yemen, Jordan, Egypt, Iraq and Lebanon have all been affected by the conflict.

Not only the US and Israel, some of the US's strategic military allies in the Gulf region have bombed Iran and forces in the region considered allies of Iran. Not only the Strait of Hormuz has been blockaded and become a new battlefield between the US and Iran, but the Houthi forces in Yemen have also blockaded the Bab al-Mandab Strait, opening a new front to share the fire with Iran, aiming directly at Saudi Arabia - an important ally of the US in the region.

So the conflict between the US and Iran has new belligerents and new battlefields. The more persistent the conflict, the more it spreads and the more it attracts other parties to participate, the greater the risk of developments going beyond the control of the parties.

The current state of conflict and political security situation in this region is primarily a direct consequence of the diplomatic deadlock between the US and Iran as well as the unsuccessful intermediary diplomatic role of all parties that have volunteered to take on this task.

Diplomacy did not achieve results because Iran did not trust the opponent and because the other side also did not want to use real diplomacy to end the conflict but to show military strength. The temporary peace agreement was therefore not fully and seriously implemented, so it quickly collapsed.

The next reason is that the more one side attacks, the more determined it is to implement the strategy of increasing maximum pressure, the more the other side shows determination to fight to get the opponent mired in this conflict. Just need Iran to respond militarily, whether aimed at the US or US allies in the region, it is enough to make the US difficult and embarrassing.

The conflict spread throughout the region and more parties engaged because of deeper purposes. Iran attacked the US and even US strategic military allies in the region so that allies and other countries in the region had to put pressure on the US to end the conflict. At that time, the opponent was pushed to the choice between ending the conflict or escalating further to force the other side to end the conflict. At that time, as long as Iran responds to the US militarily and targets US allies, the US will continue to sink deeper into the conflict with Iran.

The situation of increasing the number of warring parties and expanding the scope of conflict's influence is not without risks for Iran but even more disadvantageous for the US. Washington is currently in great need but has not found a way out of this conflict. Therefore, as long as the idea of a peaceful political solution to help end the conflict has not flickered, the fighting will continue and escalate no matter how many more warring parties and more battlefields there are.

Ngạc Ngư
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