Ukraine currently only has enough budget to spend until June, according to estimates by domestic and foreign officials.
A series of recent obstacles - from Hungary's veto of the European Union (EU) loan of 90 billion euros, disputes related to the new support package of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to NATO's stalled arms supply initiative - have significantly reduced Ukraine's ability to maneuver.
Governor of the Central Bank of Ukraine Andriy Pyshnyi said in early March that if he does not receive international funding, in the worst case scenario, the central bank may have to resume direct loans to the Ministry of Finance. This money will be used to pay salaries for soldiers, workers and maintain essential services.
Since Donald Trump returned to the White House in January last year, the US has almost stopped direct aid to Ukraine, causing Europe to bear most of the weapons costs and financial support for Kiev.
New support from the EU is expected to begin disbursement as early as April, after bloc leaders agreed in December 2025 on lending for this year and 2027.
However, this plan was overturned when Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced that he would block disbursement until Ukraine restored the transit of Russian oil through its territory through the Druzhba pipeline.
On March 25, Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko expected the EU to disburse "in the near future".
However, the fate of the loan may remain unclear at least until after the general election on April 12 in Hungary.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine is looking for "alternative solutions" to access capital, otherwise "the military will lack funding". He warned that lack of money will affect the production of drones and the purchase of air defense systems.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also reassured that the EU will provide loans to Ukraine "in one way or another".
The financial challenges Ukraine is facing may further complicate negotiations on a 30 billion euro additional support package that the EU plans to mobilize from other countries, including the G7 group, when finance ministers meet in Washington in April on the occasion of the IMF conference.
Ukraine is also facing difficulties in meeting its commitments under the 8.1 billion USD IMF loan program approved last month, amid political tensions between President Zelensky and the country's parliament. MPs have not yet passed amendments to tax laws as required by the IMF - a condition to continue disbursement after the 1.5 billion USD allocated in the 4-year program.
It is even more difficult when some NATO allies are reluctant to contribute more financial resources to the US arms program (PURL). Ukrainian Ambassador to NATO Alyona Getmanchuk said that only a few countries are bearing most of the costs and it is increasingly difficult to continue calling for their support.
Ukraine estimates needs 15 billion USD to buy US weapons this year. Overall, Ukraine needs about 52 billion USD in foreign aid in 2026, according to estimates by the country's financial agency.
If the current shortage situation persists, Ukraine may face a "financial tragedy" as early as April, according to Danylo Hetmantsev - Chairman of the Financial Committee of the Ukrainian Parliament, shared in an interview with Forbes Ukraine in February.
