Experts from UOB (United Overseas Bank - a multinational bank headquartered in Singapore) assess that with GDP in Q2/2026 increasing by 8.39%, higher than Q1's 7.94%, bringing growth in the first 6 months of the year to 8.18%, Vietnam continues to be the fastest growing economy in ASEAN. Economies in the region only grew by about 2.8% - 6.0% in Q1/2026 and are likely to continue to be lower than Vietnam in Q2.
According to UOB experts, strong growth in the first half of the year is also accompanied by the weakening of the foreign balance. Therefore, UOB experts recommend that the foreign sector still needs to be closely monitored because the Vietnamese economy has a large degree of openness and is significantly dependent on the global trade cycle.
Thanks to economic results exceeding expectations in the first half of the year, the momentum from AI continues to be positive and energy prices cool down, UOB experts raised Vietnam's GDP growth forecast for 2026 from the previous level of 7.0% to 8.5%. However, this level is still lower than the Government's growth target of 10% in the context that the economy is still facing many external risks. With average inflation in 6 months at 4.38% and core inflation of 4.12%, both around the 4.5% operating threshold, inflationary pressure is no longer as large as before. According to UOB experts, the State Bank will have to balance the goals of supporting growth, controlling inflation, stabilizing the foreign balance and monitoring exchange rate developments. Similarly, Mr. Shan Saeed - chief global economist of Juwai IQI (Malaysia) - said that Vietnam is in the group of 5 Southeast Asian countries, along with Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines, which will play a role in shaping the next economic growth cycle of the region. Mr. Shan Saeed pointed out that the combination of demographic scale, industrial depth, external buffer zones and policy discipline of these 5 economies is reshaping ASEAN's development.
Vietnam recorded the fastest growth rate with 7.83% compared to the same period last year, followed by Indonesia with 5.61% and Malaysia reaching 5.4% thanks to momentum from private consumption and manufacturing.
Mr. Shan Saeed pointed out that strategic resource strengths such as palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, or key export agricultural products of Vietnam and Thailand, continue to play a role as real economic anchors, supporting foreign currency earnings and the national balance sheet. Digital transformation and data infrastructure are forecast to be the main drivers for the next phase of capital allocation in the region, in which Vietnam is also attracting infrastructure commitments related to AI and semiconductors, while Indonesia is still the largest digital consumer market.
Previously, the Asian Development Outlook Report (ADO) updated in July 2026, released by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on July 8, stated that Vietnam is forecast to be the fastest growing economy in Southeast Asia.
