China's exports in June increased by 5.8% compared to the same period last year, exceeding the forecast of 5% by economists in a Bloomberg survey.
This is considered a positive result after the US and China reached a preliminary agreement to reduce tariff tensions between the world's two largest economies.
Data released by the General Administration of Customs in China showed that imports also increased by 1.1%, marking the first increase in 2024 and much higher than the forecast of 0.3%. The strong increase in exports has become a lifeline for the Chinese economy in the context of weak domestic demand and other sectors facing difficulties.
In June, China's export turnover to the US skyrocketed by 32.4% after falling in the previous month. Analysts say that Chinese businesses accelerating exports to the US to avoid the risk of new tariffs has contributed to the increase in the data.
Zichun Huang, a Chinese economist at Capital Economics, said that the recovery of exports was partly supported by the agreement to temporarily suspend trade tensions, but warned that high tariffs will continue to persist and Chinese manufacturers are facing limitations in continuing to expand their global market share through price reduction.
Mr. Zhiwei Zhang, chairman and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said that strong export results could help keep the GDP growth rate in the second quarter close to the government's target of 5%. However, he warned that the impact of "exporting first to avoid taxes" will not last until the second half of the year.
According to Mr. Vuong Linh Quan, a Chinese customs official, hoping that the US will continue to cooperate with Beijing, emphasizing that the agreement has just been reached is an unattainable result and that only dialogue and cooperation can be the right path.
Despite a 5.4% increase in the first quarter, China still faces many challenges such as a debt crisis in the real estate industry, weak consumption and high unemployment among young people. Experts say the country needs to gradually shift to a domestic consumption-based growth model rather than relying on exports and infrastructure investment.
