Faced with the developments of conflict in the Middle East causing world oil prices to increase sharply and supply disruptions, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has proactively developed operating plans and synchronously implemented solutions to ensure supply, control prices and maintain the stability of the domestic gasoline and oil market.
Military conflict from February 28, 2026 continues to escalate, creating the "largest energy bottleneck ever", when about 11 million barrels of oil/day and 140 billion m3 of gas are disrupted. This large-scale energy shock not only pushed crude oil prices above the threshold of 100 USD/barrel but also spread, affecting import costs and global economic growth.
Domestically, the gasoline and oil market is under double pressure when raw materials for production are interrupted, and import activities face many difficulties due to countries in the region applying export restriction measures. Notably, the input supply of Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemical Plant - accounting for about 40% of consumption output - is significantly affected.
In that context, the Ministry of Industry and Trade clearly demonstrated its role as an operating agency when proactively building response scenarios closely following the developments of the world market. Two operating options were proposed corresponding to the prolonged levels of conflict, thereby creating room to adjust policies flexibly, minimizing shocks to the domestic market.
Based on the Ministry's advice, the Government has issued resolutions to optimize the price management cycle, avoid the situation of "periodic shock", and at the same time implement fiscal solutions, including reducing preferential import tax on gasoline and oil to 0% to support businesses in accessing supply sources in the context of the narrowing international market. Thereby affirming the proactive and flexible role of the Ministry of Industry and Trade in managing the gasoline and oil market in the face of external fluctuations.
In parallel with management work, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has synchronously implemented solutions to increase domestic supply. From promoting crude oil exploitation, searching for alternative raw materials for Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemical Plant to increasing the capacity of existing oil refineries and putting Ethanol and Condensat plants into operation, these solutions have made an important contribution to compensating for the supply shortage and reducing pressure on the market.
Along with that, gasoline and oil price management work continues to be carried out closely, closely following the developments of the world market with effective coordination between the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Ministry of Finance. The flexible use of the Price Stabilization Fund has helped reduce the price increase margin in the country compared to the world, thereby contributing to stabilizing market sentiment and controlling inflation. At the same time, inspection teams are deployed nationwide to monitor the distribution system, ensuring the maintenance of inventory and smooth circulation of goods.
Thanks to synchronous solutions, by March 24, 2026, domestic gasoline and oil supply was basically still guaranteed. Production at Dung Quat Oil Refinery increased by 10.5%, enough raw materials for production until the end of April, early May; while Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemical Plant still maintained production until the end of April. Import activities also recorded positive increases, making an important contribution to stabilizing market supply.
Notably, despite great pressure from international fluctuations, domestic gasoline and oil price increases are still significantly lower than in the world. RON95-III gasoline and diesel prices increased by 37% and 45% respectively, while the corresponding increases of world prices reached 63.3% and 71.8%. Compared to the region, Vietnam's gasoline and oil prices are currently at an average level and lower than some countries sharing the same border, showing the clear effectiveness of management solutions in "cooling down" the impact from the world market.
In the context that the global energy market still has many potential fluctuations, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will continue to closely follow the direction of the Politburo, the Government and the Prime Minister, closely monitor international developments to promptly adjust appropriate operating scenarios. At the same time, the Ministry also proposed tax solutions to continue to support stabilizing gasoline and oil prices, contributing to controlling inflation and maintaining macroeconomic stability.
Proactively developing scenarios, flexibly managing and effectively coordinating policy tools will continue to be key factors to maintain the stability of the domestic gasoline and oil market in the face of unpredictable world fluctuations.
