That is the information shared by Dr. Tran Van The - economic expert, Chairman of the Board of Directors of INDEL Investment and Development Joint Stock Company (INDEL CORP) in an interview with Lao Dong Newspaper.
Sir, please assess the extent of the impact of the conflict between the United States - Israel and Iran on the Vietnamese gasoline and oil market?
- The conflict between the United States – Israel and Iran is creating clear shocks in the global energy market and Vietnam is unlikely to stand outside that sphere of influence. The Middle East is a key oil supplier of the world. As soon as the risk of supply disruption or transportation disruption appears, oil prices will react immediately due to psychological factors and speculation in the international market.
For Vietnam, the impact comes from both price channels and supply channels. Although there are domestic refineries and petrochemical plants, we still have to import a part of crude oil for processing and import more finished gasoline and oil to compensate for the shortage. Therefore, when world crude oil prices increase, the average import price also increases, dragging down business costs of key enterprises.
In the current context, what pressures and risks are leading businesses and distribution traders, and domestic gasoline and oil retailers facing, sir?
- In the context of escalating Middle East tensions causing world oil prices to fluctuate sharply, key enterprises, distribution traders and domestic gasoline and oil retailers are facing many pressures at the same time, both financially and operating.
First of all, there is pressure on cost of goods sold and cash flow. When crude oil prices and finished gasoline prices on the international market increase rapidly, import costs of key enterprises increase daily. However, domestic retail prices are managed cyclically, with a certain delay compared to international developments. This can cause businesses to fall into a situation where import prices are high but selling prices have not been adjusted accordingly, causing profit margins to narrow, even temporary losses to arise. To maintain continuous supply, businesses still have to ensure mandatory reserves and import goods regularly, leading to a sharp increase in demand for working capital.
For distribution traders and retail businesses, the pressure is also reflected in limited profit margins. Discount levels in the distribution chain can fluctuate according to market conditions, while fixed costs such as premises, labor, electricity, water and operations are constantly increasing. According to a retailer, by 6:00 PM on March 2, 2026, the discount level for many retail gasoline and oil businesses has fallen to 0 VND. This means that retail stores still have to maintain operations, pay electricity, water, employee salaries, operating costs, transportation... but do not have corresponding profits. If this situation lasts, retail businesses will hardly survive for long, because they cannot do business in a state of "free labor".
In that context, accelerating the progress of issuing a new Decree on gasoline and oil business is extremely necessary. The draft has been revised, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has received opinions many times but has not yet been issued. Notably, this Decree is not only related to the mechanism for managing retail gasoline and oil prices, but also includes many other important contents such as business conditions, import licensing, distribution and market management mechanisms.
Firstly, in the past time, many key petroleum import enterprises have had their licenses revoked because they no longer meet the conditions according to regulations. This makes the market filter out some weak units. Meanwhile, many new enterprises have met the conditions to become import leads and are preparing dossiers. However, they still have to wait for the new Decree to be issued to complete licensing procedures.
Second, the promulgation of the new Decree will help transparentize the gasoline and oil market, reform administrative procedures and improve the efficiency of state management.
A particularly important content of the Decree is to grant price decision-making rights to gasoline and oil businesses. Accordingly, businesses will be entitled to decide selling prices according to market supply and demand and be responsible for their business operations. The State will perform the function of state management of energy, ensuring energy security and market supervision. Granting price decision-making rights according to market mechanisms will help ensure harmony of interests between businesses and the goal of stabilizing supply.
In the coming time, what does Vietnam need to do to ensure supply and reduce dependence on external fluctuations, sir?
- To ensure gasoline and oil supply in the context of a volatile world market, Vietnam needs to synchronously implement both short-term and long-term solutions.
In the short term, the most important thing is to proactively balance supply between domestic production and imports.
In the medium and long term, Vietnam needs to improve energy self-sufficiency capacity, expand domestic capacity.... In particular, promoting renewable energy helps gradually reduce the level of dependence on traditional gasoline and oil.
More importantly, the operating mechanism needs to be flexible enough to respond promptly to international fluctuations, ensuring harmony of interests between the State, businesses and consumers.
Thank you, sir!
