Forecast of gasoline prices in the operating period tomorrow

According to a survey at 10:36 p.m. on March 11 (Vietnam time), WTI oil price increased by 0.86 USD/barrel (down 1.3%), to 66.89 USD/barrel. Brent oil price increased by 0.89 USD/barrel (up 0.89%), to 70.17 USD/barrel.

Oil prices rose less than 1% on Tuesday as the dollar weakened. However, this increase is limited by growing concerns about the recession of the US economy and the impact of tariffs on global economic growth.

"Such developments are increasing market volatility," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group.

Protectionist policies under US President Donald Trump have caused a stir in the global market, with tariffs imposed and postponed on major oil suppliers such as Canada and Mexico. At the same time, it has increased tariffs on China, leading to retaliatory measures.

PVM analyst Tamas Varga said that US tariff cuts could ease concerns about inflation and economic recession. However, the recent decline in oil prices shows that "it is difficult to see OPEC+ continue to implement its plan and bring oil back to the market from April".

The gasoline price forecasting model using machine Learning of the Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI) shows that in the operating period on March 13, 2025, gasoline prices are likely to continue to decrease by 2.5 - 2.7% if the Ministry of Finance - Industry and Trade does not set aside or use a gasoline price stabilization fund.

Mr. Doan Tien Quyet - VPI's data analysis expert, the gasoline price forecast model using the artificial neural network model ( sp) and the supervised learning algorithm (Supervised Learning) in VPI forecast that retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline will continue to decrease by 499 VND (2.05%) to 19,461 VND/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline may decrease by 551 VND (2.7%) to 19,849 VND/liter.

VPI's model predicts that retail oil prices this period will also tend to decrease. Of which, mazut oil may decrease sharply by 4.1% to 16,447 VND/kg. Diesel may decrease by 1.8% to VND18,000/liter. Kerosene is forecast to decrease slightly by 0.3% to VND18,514/liter. VPI forecasts that the Ministry of Finance - Industry and Trade will continue not to set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund this period.

In the most recent price adjustment, E5 RON 92 gasoline price decreased by 697 VND/liter, RON 95-III gasoline decreased by 710 VND/liter, kerosene decreased by 762 VND/liter, diesel decreased by 624 VND/liter, mazut decreased by 465 VND/kg.