Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market this morning, March 5th, regained its excitement with brilliant green color covering key growing areas.
Agents simultaneously adjusted to increase purchase prices from 1,000 to 1,300 VND/kg, helping the average price of the entire Central Highlands region to re-establish the 96,000 VND/kg mark. This is a positive reaction after yesterday's deep decline, showing that purchasing power is still very abundant when there are support signals from the world.
Specific fluctuations in localities:
Dak Lak, Gia Lai and Dak Nong (old): Simultaneously breakthrough, currently purchasing at the same level of 96,000 VND/kg.
Lam Dong: Recorded the strongest increase (+1300 VND), bringing the transaction price here to 95,500 VND/kg.
The strong increase right in the middle of the week has helped relieve psychological pressure for farmers, while narrowing the gap with previous high price levels.
World coffee prices
The trading session on Wednesday witnessed a simultaneous recovery of both Arabica and Robusta as geopolitical risks became the focus of the market.
London Stock Exchange (Robusta): May 2026 futures increased by another 29 USD (equivalent to 0.78%), closing the session at 3,734 USD/ton.
The price is fueled by concerns that the war in Iran will paralyze transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a sharp increase in transportation, insurance and fuel costs.
New York Stock Exchange (Arabica): May 2026 futures accelerated up 3.10 cents (1.09%), closing at 286.25 cents/lb.
In addition to the transportation factor, Arabica's increase also received indirect support from Colombia's January production report, which decreased by 34%.
Market outlook
Although the market is excited in the short term, experts still warn about the pressure of abundant supply in the future. Rabobank forecasts that world output in the 2026/27 crop year will reach a record 180 million sacks, while Conab forecasts that Brazil will have a historic crop season with 66.2 million sacks in 2026. In Vietnam, production in the 2025/26 crop year is also forecast to reach the highest level in the past 4 years at 1.76 million tons.
It is forecasted that in the coming sessions, coffee prices will continue to be strongly fluctuating around the 95,500 - 97,000 VND/kg range. The recovery of inventory on the ICE exchange (Arabica reached a high of 4.75 months and Robusta reached a peak of 3.25 months) is still a major barrier preventing prices from breaking too far. Farmers should take advantage of price increases due to geopolitical news to balance sales volume, avoiding risks when the market returns to reflect basic factors of oversupply.
