Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market this morning, March 3rd, regained its bright green color after a slight adjustment at the beginning of the week. Purchasing agents in the Central Highlands region simultaneously increased prices, helping the general level firmly consolidate above the threshold of 96,000 VND/kg. This increase takes place in the context that the USD/VND exchange rate also has slight fluctuations, positively supporting export agricultural product prices.
Specific fluctuations in key localities:
Dak Nong (old): Recorded the strongest increase in the region (+800 VND), currently leading with a price of 96,300 VND/kg.
Dak Lak and Gia Lai: Adding 700 VND to the purchase price, currently trading at the same level of 96. 200 VND/kg.
Lam Dong: Increased by 500 VND, bringing the price of raw coffee beans here to 95,300 VND/kg.
The rapid recovery of domestic prices shows the market's good resistance to forecasts of abundant supply in the future.
World coffee prices
The trading session on Monday (international time) witnessed a boom in both New York and London exchanges as geopolitical risks suddenly increased, directly affecting the global supply chain.
London Stock Exchange (Robusta): The May 2026 delivery term accelerated strongly when it increased by 148 USD (equivalent to 4.08%), closing the session at 3,772 USD/ton. This is the highest level in the past 2 weeks for Robusta. The main reason comes from concerns about the tense situation in the Strait of Hormuz disrupting trade, pushing up transportation, insurance and fuel costs, directly putting pressure on importers and roasters.
New York Stock Exchange (Arabica): Also recorded a positive increase of 3.85 cents (equivalent to 1.37%), closing at 284.60 cents/lb. However, the increase of Arabica was somewhat restrained due to the weather situation in Brazil still being very favorable. According to Somar Meteorologia, the Minas Gerais region received 78 mm of rain in the past week, reaching 131% of the historical average, consolidating the prospect of a bumper crop.
Market opinion
The coffee market is witnessing a conflict between fundamental factors and geopolitical risks. While long-term forecasts of Brazil's record supply (66.2 million bags for 2026) or Rabobank's report on global output reaching 180 million bags are still weighing on prices, maritime instability has created a short-term unexpected "push" to increase prices.
It is predicted that in the coming sessions, domestic coffee prices will continue to maintain a positive state and tend to retest the 96. 500 - 97. 500 VND/kg range. Although inventories on the ICE exchange are showing signs of recovery (Arabica peaked nearly 5 months ago), the 34% drop in Colombian production and Brazil's record low January exports are still important "barriers" to help prices not fall deeply. Farmers should take advantage of this strong recovery momentum to balance sales plans and closely monitor the developments of global transportation costs.
