Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market this morning, March 4, witnessed a significant downward adjustment after a period of efforts to accumulate the price base. Purchasing agents in the Central Highlands region simultaneously lowered prices from 1,100 - 1,400 VND/kg, pushing the average price of the whole region back to the threshold of 94,900 VND/kg. Cautious sentiment is prevailing as technical support levels are continuously challenged.
Specific fluctuations in localities:
Coffee price in Dak Nong (old): Reduced by 1,300 VND, currently anchored at the highest level in the region of 95,000 VND/kg.
Dak Lak and Gia Lai coffee prices: Both recorded a decrease of 1,400 VND, currently purchasing at the same level of 94,800 VND/kg.
Coffee price in Lam Dong: Trading at 94. 200 VND/kg after decreasing by 1,100 VND compared to the previous session.
This decline reflects the sensitivity of the domestic market to negative fluctuations from international futures exchanges.
World coffee prices
The trading session on Tuesday (March 3) witnessed a sudden reversal when both Arabica and Robusta lost their gains at the beginning of the session.
London Stock Exchange (Robusta): May 2026 futures fell sharply by 67 USD (equivalent to 1.78%), closing the session at 3,705 USD/ton. Selling pressure increased as the Brazilian Real fell to a 1.5-month low against the USD, stimulating Brazilian farmers to boost export sales. In addition, Vietnam's January export data jumped 38.3%, continuing to be a factor putting constant pressure on this exchange.
New York Stock Exchange (Arabica): May 2026 futures fell 1.45 cents (0.51%), closing at 283.15 cents/lb. Although concerns about disruption of transportation through the Strait of Hormuz due to tensions in Iran initially helped push prices up, the strong recovery of inventory on the ICE exchange (reaching a 4.75-month high of 524.139 sacks) curbed the upward momentum.
Market outlook
The market is facing a major "unknown" about long-term supply. Rabobank forecasts that global coffee production in the 2026/27 crop year will reach a record 180 million bags, an increase of 8 million bags compared to the previous year. In Brazil, Conab agency forecasts that production in 2026 will increase by 17.2%, reaching a record level of 66.2 million bags. Favorable weather with rainfall in Minas Gerais reaching 131% of the historical average is also maximizing crop yield support.
Forecast in the short term, coffee prices will continue to be in a strong "fluctuating" state around 94,000 - 95,50 VND/kg. Although logistics, insurance and fuel costs are increasing due to geopolitical conflicts that may support prices in the short term, pressure from the bumper crops of Brazil and Vietnam is still the main dominant factor.
