Domestic coffee prices
On the morning of July 11, the average coffee price in the provinces and cities decreased sharply. In Dak Lak, green coffee beans are purchased at 90.300 VND/kg, 1,000 VND/kg lower than at the beginning of the week. Gia Lai recorded a price of VND80,200/kg, while Lam Dong had the lowest price in the region at VND89,500/kg.
Compared to a week ago, domestic coffee prices have decreased by about 3,000 VND/kg. Compared to the peak in April 2025 (129,300 - 130,200 VND/kg, on 16/4), the current price is nearly 40,000 VND/kg lower - equivalent to a decrease of more than 30%.
World coffee prices
Last night, Vietnam time, Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange continued to plummet. The contract for delivery in September 2025 lost up to -150 USD/ton, falling to 3,320 USD/ton, equivalent to a decrease of -4.32%. Longer terms such as November 2025 and January 2026 also decreased by more than -130 USD/ton, down to 3,274 and 3,235 USD/ton, respectively.
In contrast, arabica prices on the New York exchange increased slightly after many adjustments. The September 2025 contract increased by +3.75 cents/lb, reaching 287.80 cents/lb. Long terms such as December and March 2026 increased around +3.00 - 3.25 cents/lb.
Market analysis
The mixed developments between the two exchanges partly reflect investors' cautious sentiment, in the context of the USDA forecasting that global coffee output in the 2025-2026 crop year could reach 178.68 million bags, while demand is only about 169.36 million bags - creating a surplus supply of more than 9 million bags.
For Vietnam, although the supply of the old crop is almost exhausted, domestic coffee prices still decrease due to the influence of world floor prices.
In the short term, world coffee prices are forecast to continue to fluctuate strongly.
Michael Nugent, senior coffee broker and consultant, owner of MJ Nugent & Co. based in California, said: Mr. Trump's announced large tariffs, if approved, will make Brazilian exporters unable to bear it. American roasters are also unable.
Paulo Armelin, a major Brazilian coffee maker selling directly to roasters in the US, said his customers would not be able to pay if the tariffs were applied.
"We will have to look to other markets, possibly Germany," he said, adding that closing deals earlier this year had been difficult following recent price increases.
Note: Domestic coffee prices are for reference only, depending on the region and the purchasing enterprise.
