Domestic coffee prices today
On July 7, a survey on coffee bean sprout prices in the Central Highlands provinces increased by 200 - 300 VND/kg compared to the previous weekend session (July 5), bringing the price level back around 95,800 - 96,400 VND/kg. Dak Lak and Gia Lai traded at 96,300 VND/kg, Lam Dong at 95,800 VND/kg, while Dak Nong reached 96,400 VND/kg.
Although domestic coffee prices have recovered, compared to the peak in April 2025 (nyuan coffee prices reached 129,300 - 130,200 VND/kg, recorded on April 16, 2025), the current price level is still about 33,000 VND/kg lower, showing a strong adjustment trend since the heating period.
World coffee prices
London Robusta futures opened the week in green, with September 2025 delivery contracts increasing by 50 USD to 3,677 USD/ton; Longer terms also simultaneously added 37 - 46 USD/ton. This is a strong recovery session compared to the end of last week when Robusta prices continued to decline.
Conversely, on the New York exchange, Arabica futures for September 2025 decreased by 1.60 cents to 289.60 cents/lb; other futures also lost 1.20 - 1.50 cents/lb, pushing Arabica prices down to around 273 - 289 cents/lb. Compared to the sharp increase in February 2025, when Arabica prices exceeded 340 cents/lb, the current price level has decreased by about 50 cents/lb.
World coffee forecast to have more than 9 million bags in supply in the new crop
The latest report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that global coffee output in the 2024-2025 crop year is expected to reach about 174.4 million bags, an increase of 2.98% compared to the 2023-2024 crop year. Meanwhile, the 2025-2026 crop year - the time when Brazil enters a favorable cycle and begins to launch products to the market - global output is estimated by the USDA to reach 178.68 million bags, an increase of 2.45% compared to 2023-2024.
In Brazil alone, the USDA forecasts annual output to reach 65 million bags, including 41 million arabica bags and 24 million robusta bags. Indonesia is expected to reach 11.25 million bags, an increase of more than 2% over the previous crop. Vietnam's coffee output, expected to start from October 2025, is estimated at about 31 million bags, an increase of 6.9% over the 2023-2024 crop.
Notably, the USDA forecasts that global coffee consumption demand in the coming crop year will be only about 169.36 million bags, significantly lower than output, putting the market at risk of a supply surplus of more than 9 million bags.
*Note: Coffee prices in the newsletter are for reference only, and may change depending on the actual trading time in the locality.
