Domestic coffee prices
On October 14, coffee prices in key Central Highlands regions increased by 700 VND/kg, bringing the average price in the whole region to 114,400 VND/kg.
The increase occurred evenly across the whole region: Dak Lak and Lam Dong both increased by 700 VND/kg, reaching 114,500 VND/kg and 113,700 VND/kg.
Coffee prices in Dak Nong (old) increased slightly by 600 VND/kg to 114,600 VND/kg.
Coffee prices in Gia Lai increased by 700 VND/kg to 114,200 VND/kg.
This strong price increase is a clear sign of recovery after a deep correction last week.
World coffee prices
The international coffee market witnessed an impressive explosive session, erasing the pessimistic sentiment from the end of the week.
Robusta ( London): Sharp increase of 80 USD/ton (nearly 1.8%), closing at 4,560 USD/ton.
Arabica (New York): Even stronger, up to 12.15 US cents/lb (over 3.2%), closing at 385.20 US cents/lb.
The synchronous and strong price increase of both exchanges is the main driving force for domestic coffee prices to recover.
Assessment and forecast
Today's strong increase shows that the market is reacting strongly to the risk of Arabica coffee supply in the future. Purchasing power quickly dominated, stopping the decline.
Brazil's largest Arabica growing area, Minas Gerais, received only 48% of its historical average rainfall last week. These too dry conditions are raising serious concerns about the 2026/27 crop in the important flowering stage.
Arabica inventories monitored by ICE have fallen to a 1.5-year low of 498,088 bags. Robusta inventories are also at a 2.5-month low. This situation is further aggravated by the 50% US tariffs on Brazil, forcing US buyers to cancel contracts and tighten supply.
Volcafe forecasters maintain the forecast of a deficit of 8.5 million Arabica bags in the 2025/26 crop year, which will be the fifth consecutive year of deficit.
The LLC reported a slight increase in global exports of 0.2%, suggesting that current supply is not too lacking.
