Domestic coffee prices
On October 9, coffee prices in key Central Highlands regions increased by VND 1,000/kg, bringing the average price in the whole region to VND 114,800/kg. The increase occurred simultaneously in all localities: Dak Lak, Lam Dong, Gia Lai and Dak Nong (old) all increased by 1,000 VND/kg.
This price increase has regained exactly what was lost in yesterday's session. However, since the peak of VND 122,000/kg at the end of August, the current price has still decreased net by VND 7,200/kg, showing that the market is still in the recovery phase.
World coffee prices
The international coffee market has had a strong recovery session, signaling that the sell-off effect has been temporarily suspended.
Robusta Coffee ( London): Sharp increase of 128 USD/ton (nearly 3%), closing at 4,542 USD/ton.
Arabica Coffee (New York): Also increased sharply by 9.70 US cents/lb (more than 2.5%), closing at 385.10 US cents/lb.
This strong and synchronous recovery is the clearest proof that the fundamental factors (supply) are still supporting prices, and the recent decline is only technical activities.
Assessment and recommendation
According to a report by Foreign Agricultural Service under the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in June 2025, world coffee output in 2025/26 is forecast to reach a record of 178.7 million bags, an increase of 4.3 million bags compared to the previous year, due to the recovery in Vietnam, Indonesia and record output in Ethiopia. Global coffee exports are forecast to increase by 700,000 bags to 122.3 million bags, meeting the record demand of 169.4 million bags. However, inventories remained at a low of 22.8 million bags, keeping coffee prices high despite increased output.
Grand View Research's October 2024 report stated that the global coffee market continues to grow strongly, with a market worth 269.27 billion USD in 2024 expected to reach 369.46 billion USD by 2030, an average growth of about 5.3% per year. The demand for specialty coffee, premium coffee and increased consumption trends in emerging markets such as Asia are the main drivers of long-term price action.
According to an analysis by Investing.com updated in August 2025 on technical analysis on US coffee futures contracts (US Coffee C Futures), the current trend is strong buying, showing the expectation that coffee prices may increase due to factors limiting supply and pressure from global demand. However, prices may still fluctuate strongly in the short term due to the influence of financial market developments and weather.
In short, coffee prices are forecasted to continue to fluctuate in the short term, with a slight upward trend thanks to low inventory and increased demand, but also facing new supply pressure and technical fluctuations.
In the long term, the global coffee market is expected to grow well, due to the trend of high-end coffee consumption and the expanding market, although there may be adjustments according to seasonal output and weather conditions.
