Domestic coffee prices
On October 11, coffee prices in key Central Highlands regions decreased by VND800/kg, bringing the average price in the whole region down to VND113,800/kg.
Coffee prices in Dak Lak decreased by 700 VND/kg to 113,800 VND/kg, Lam Dong decreased the most by 900 VND/kg to 113,000 VND/kg, Gia Lai decreased by 800 VND/kg to 113,500 VND/kg, and Dak Nong (old) decreased by 800 VND/kg to 114,800 VND/kg.
The consecutive sharp declines over the weekend have erased almost all of the recovery results after the mid-September crash. From the peak of 122,000 VND/kg at the end of August, the current price has decreased net by 8,200 VND/kg.
World coffee prices
The international coffee market ended the week with a strong downward adjustment session.
Robusta ( London): Sharp decline, loss of 86 USD/ton (1.81%), closing at 4,480 USD/ton.
Arabica (New York): Continued strong decline, losing 4.30 US cents/lb (1.16%), closing at 373.05 US cents/lb.
Causes and forecasts for coffee prices
The coffee market is being dominated by a conflict between future supply risks and actual supply.
Factors that put downward pressure on prices include: Rapid harvest progress in Brazil, forecast of Vietnam's Robusta output increasing by 6%, and a decrease in demand after prices increased too high. However, price support factors are still very strong. Record low Arabica inventories (causing a deficit of up to 8.5 million bags according to Volcafe) and record fake sales positions could cause a sudden increase in prices if there is positive news.
It is forecasted that the market will enter the new week with strong selling pressure. The recovery could only come if there is new information about stronger depending inventory reduction or the weather risk in Brazil increases again.
