Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market this morning, March 16, recorded a slight downward adjustment, continuing the downward trend from last week. Agents in the Central Highlands region simultaneously reduced purchasing prices by 200 VND/kg, bringing the regional average price to the threshold of 90,400 VND/kg. After a period of efforts to maintain the 95,000 VND mark at the beginning of the month, the current price level has decreased significantly due to the negative impact from the developments of the international futures exchange.
Detailed purchase prices in regions:
Dak Nong (old): Keeping the highest level in the region but also down 200 VND, currently reaching 90,500 VND/kg.
Dak Lak and Gia Lai: Both recorded a price of 90,300 VND/kg after adjusting down.
Lam Dong: Continuing to anchor at the lowest level in the region with 89,500 VND/kg.
This decrease reflects the cautious sentiment of domestic investors in the face of the prospect of oversupply becoming increasingly apparent on a global scale.
World coffee prices
Last weekend's trading session witnessed a sharp decline on both exchanges, especially Robusta when it fell to the lowest level in the contract.
London Stock Exchange (Robusta): May 2026 futures fell sharply by 170 USD (-4.69%), closing the last session of the week at 3,455 USD/ton. This morning, March 16, the listed price temporarily went sideways as the exchange was on a trading break. Selling pressure exploded after StoneX raised its forecast for Brazil's coffee production for the 2026/27 crop year to a record 75.3 million bags. In addition, Vietnam's export data for the first 2 months of the year increased by 14% (reaching 366,000 tons) also put great pressure on this exchange.
New York Stock Exchange (Arabica): May 2026 futures fell sharply 6.75 cents (-2.31%), closing the weekend session at 285.15 cents/lb. Arabica prices fell to a 1-week low due to the USD index ($DXY) soaring to a 3.5-month high. In addition, inventory on the ICE exchange increasing to a 5.5-month high (572,004 bags) also contributed to curbing the recovery momentum of this exchange.
Market outlook
The coffee market is facing great supply pressure as reputable organizations such as Rabobank and StoneX continuously release record production figures for the next crops. Conab's forecast that Brazil will reach 66.2 million bags by 2026 along with favorable weather (although Minas Gerais had little rain last week but still achieved an average of 35%) is creating a pessimistic sentiment for prices. The only bright spot supporting the market today is the disruption of sea transport through the Strait of Hormuz, which increased logistics costs and Brazil's February export report fell 17.4%.
If the USD's upward momentum does not cool down soon and ICE inventory reports continue to recover, coffee prices may have further deep corrections.
