Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market this morning, March 18, recorded stability and maintained a slight green color after yesterday's recovery. In key growing areas of the Central Highlands, the purchase price did not have new fluctuations compared to the previous session, holding at an average of 90,600 VND/kg. This is a positive signal showing that the market is making efforts to accumulate to escape the bottom recorded at the end of February.
Detailed purchase prices in regions:
Dak Nong (old): Continues to maintain the highest price in the region at 90,700 VND/kg.
Dak Lak and Gia Lai: Simultaneously purchasing at the mark of 90,500 VND/kg.
Lam Dong: Stable at 89. 700 VND/kg.
Although it has recovered, compared to the price of 95,700 VND/kg recorded last week, the market is still about 5,000 VND/kg lower.
World coffee prices
Tuesday's trading session saw coffee prices increase for the second consecutive session, in which Arabica set a 1-week high.
London Stock Exchange (Robusta): May 2026 delivery futures increased by another 52 USD (+1.50%), closing at 3,527 USD/ton. The price was strongly supported when the closure of the Hormuz Strait due to the war in Iran disrupted global sea transport, pushing up freight, insurance and fuel costs. This increase occurred despite pressure from Vietnam's boosting exports (the first 2 months of the year increased by 14%).
New York Stock Exchange (Arabica): May 2026 futures increased slightly by 1.90 cent (+0.65%), closing the session at 294.75 cents/lb. Price pressure from abundant rainfall in Brazil (Minas Gerais reached 139% of the historical average) was overwhelmed by concerns about supply due to sealift disruptions.
Market outlook
Although the market is having a short-term recovery, oversupply pressure in the long term is still a major challenge. Rabobank forecasts that global output in the 2026/27 crop year will reach a record 180 million sacks, while StoneX raises its estimated Brazilian output to 75.3 million sacks. In addition, Arabica's inventory on the ICE exchange has recovered to a 5.5-month high (more than 581,000 sacks), continuing to put pressure on the sustainable price increase momentum.
It is predicted that in the coming sessions, coffee prices will continue to fluctuate strongly around the range of 9,000 - 92,000 VND/kg. Geopolitical factors and sea transport costs will be a "lifesaver" for prices in the short term.
