Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market this morning, March 17, regained its upward momentum after a series of consecutive declining sessions. Agents in the Central Highlands region simultaneously adjusted slightly up by 200 VND/kg, bringing the average price of the whole region to the threshold of 90,600 VND/kg. This recovery, although not large, has helped coffee prices temporarily escape the free fall and strengthen the psychology of farmers.
Detailed purchase prices in regions:
Dak Nong (old): Continuing to maintain the highest price in the region, increasing to 90,700 VND/kg.
Dak Lak and Gia Lai: Both recorded a price of 90,500 VND/kg after adding 200 VND.
Lam Dong: Trading at 89,700 VND/kg, close to the support level of 90,000 VND.
Although there is a recovery, compared to the peak of over 96,000 VND at the beginning of the month, the current price level is still about 6,000 VND/kg lower.
World coffee prices
The trading session on Monday witnessed the breakthrough of both Arabica and Robusta as geopolitical risks overwhelmed negative technical factors at the beginning of the session.
New York Stock Exchange (Arabica): May 2026 futures increased sharply by 7.70 cents (+2.70%), closing at 292.85 cents/lb. Although at the beginning of the session the price fell to a 1.5-week low due to heavy rain in Brazil (reaching 139% of the average), concerns about transport disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz increasing freight and fuel costs pushed prices to recover strongly.
London Stock Exchange (Robusta): May 2026 futures increased by another 20 USD (+0.58%), closing the session at 3,475 USD/ton. The increase in Robusta occurred despite pressure from StoneX raising its forecast for Brazil's coffee production for the 2026/27 crop year to a record 75.3 million bags. In addition, Brazil's February export data decreased by 27% (according to Cecafe) is also an important factor supporting this floor price.
Market opinion
Although there is a short-term recovery due to sea transport factors, the market still faces great supply pressure in the long term. Rabobank forecasts that global coffee production in the 2026/27 crop year will reach a record 180 million bags, an increase of 8 million bags compared to the previous year.
In Vietnam, exports in the first 2 months of 2026 increased by 14% to 360,000 tons, plus Arabica's ICE floor inventory is at a 5.5-month high (more than 581,000 bags), continuing to be major barriers to the sustainable breakthrough of prices.
Forecast in the coming sessions, coffee prices will continue to be strongly fluctuating around the 90,000 - 92,000 VND/kg range. Geopolitical factors will be the main driving force leading prices in the short term, while reports on Brazil's bumper crop will curb the increase.
