Domestic coffee prices
At the end of the last trading session of November, the domestic coffee market recorded a relatively quiet performance, going against the excitement of international exchanges.
After a week of fluctuations with unusual fluctuations, coffee prices in the Central Highlands provinces today closed around 111,300 - 112,500 VND/kg. Compared to the beginning of the week, the general price level has decreased slightly by about 200 - 300 VND/kg depending on the locality, showing that pressure from the new crop supply is starting to weigh on the domestic market sentiment.
Specifically, in Lam Dong province, the purchasing price is being traded at the lowest level in the region at 111,300 VND/kg.
Meanwhile, in the coffee "capital" of Dak Lak, Cu M'gar district recorded a slightly higher price, 112,300 VND/kg.
Dak Nong continues to be the locality with the highest purchasing price in the region, reaching 112,500 VND/kg.
Although prices have been adjusted down slightly compared to last week, the base price of over VND 110,000/kg is still considered a record and attractive price for farmers in the history of this industry.
The main reason for the sharp decline is that the storms in the Central and Central Highlands in recent days have significantly disrupted the harvest and drying progress of farmers.
World coffee prices
In contrast to the calmness of the domestic market, the "edesbank" on the two largest derivatives exchanges in the world had an explosive trading week, especially in the weekend sessions. Green covers the entire market as speculators return to buy.
On the London Stock Exchange, Robusta coffee futures for delivery in January 2026 closed the week at 4,565 USD/ton, up to 59 USD/ton (equivalent to 1.3%) compared to the previous week. Longer terms also recorded impressive growth, strengthening the uptrend in the medium term.
The developments on the New York exchange were even more dramatic when Arabica coffee futures for delivery in December 2025 skyrocketed, closing the session at 413.00 cents/lb, equivalent to an increase of 3.3% in just one week.
This is an uncommonly high price, reflecting the deep concern of international traders about the supply of high-quality Arabica. The differentiation between the two exchanges shows that cash flow is favoring the group of goods "hiding" against macro fluctuations, while reflecting the concern about weather risks in major producing countries such as Vietnam and Brazil.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
Looking back at the fluctuations of the past week, it can be seen that the coffee market is being strongly dominated by three "black thieves" factors including tariff policies, international legal regulations and extreme weather.
The strongest price increase for the international market this week comes from the news that US President Donald Trump decided to lift the 40% tax on Brazilian coffee imports. This news immediately fueled optimism, stimulating fake speculative funds to catch up with the consumer trend increasing again in the US market.
In addition, the European Union (EU) Parliament's official agreement to postpone the application of the EUDR by one more year, to December 30, 2026, has removed the psychological "bottleneck" for exporters.
Previously, concerns about EUDR barriers had caused a blockage of trade flows, but now this pressure has been temporarily eased, giving Robusta prices more room to recover.
However, the most important factor to keep Vietnamese coffee prices from "falling freely" during the harvest season is the weather factor. Storm No. 15 (storm Koto) and the tropical depression circulation causing widespread heavy rain in the Central Highlands are raising concerns about the quality of new coffee beans and the possibility of local supply shortages in the short term.
It is forecasted that next week, domestic coffee prices will likely continue to fluctuate around 110,000 - 113,000 VND/kg. If the storm continues to hinder drying, prices may rebound as dealers need goods to deliver to December and January contracts.
On the contrary, if the weather is sunny, the pressure on new crop sales will increase, which can reduce prices slightly. In the context of fluctuating USD exchange rates and complicated geopolitical situations, it is necessary to be cautious and closely monitor market developments to make reasonable sales decisions.
