Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market this morning recorded a positive signal when green covered a wide area in the Central Highlands. According to records in key growing areas, the average purchase price has increased to VND 111,800/kg, an increase of VND 500 compared to the previous trading session.
In the coffee capital of Dak Lak, the purchase price has reached 112,000 VND/kg. This is also the price recorded in the old Dak Nong province, reflecting stable demand from purchasing agents.
In Gia Lai province, coffee prices today also recorded a corresponding increase, bringing the trading price to 111,500 VND/kg.
Meanwhile, in Lam Dong province, although still the locality with the lowest price in the region, the purchase price has also exceeded 110,000 VND, currently trading at 111,000 VND/kg.
World coffee prices
In the international market, the London exchange witnessed a recovery in Robusta coffee prices after a decline affected by the information of postponing the implementation of the EUDR.
The latest update on November 28, 2025 shows that Robusta futures for delivery in January 2026 have increased by 26 USD, equivalent to an increase of 0.58%, closing at 4,539 USD/ton. The March 2026 delivery period also recorded an increase of 12 USD, reaching 4,389 USD/ton. The transaction volume remains at a fairly good level, showing that cash flow is returning to this commodity.
In contrast to Robusta's increase, Arabica coffee prices on the New York exchange have somewhat stagnated. The December 2025 delivery period remained unchanged from the previous session, unchanged at 411.50 cents/lb. Longer terms such as March 2026 and May 2026 also did not record fluctuations in matched prices.
The main reason supporting Robusta's rebound is believed to stem from concerns about extreme weather threatening global output. In Brazil, Minas Gerais - the largest Arabica coffee plantation - has only received 49% of its historical average rainfall in the past week, raising concerns about drought.
Meanwhile, in Vietnam, heavy rain forecast in Dak Lak is raising concerns about delayed harvesting, creating momentum to support Robusta prices. The sharp decline in coffee inventories on the ICE exchange ( Robusta inventories fell to their lowest level in more than 6 months) is also an important technical factor supporting prices in this session.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
The coffee market is entering a period of strong competition between basic information on long-term supply and demand. One factor that puts downward pressure on prices in the medium term is StoneX's latest forecast, which predicts that Brazil's coffee output in the 2026/2027 crop could reach 70.7 million bags, up 29% over the same period last year.
In addition, supply from Vietnam is also showing signs of abundance when the Statistics Office (Ministry of Finance) reported that exports in the first 10 months of 2025 increased by 13.4%, reaching 1.31 million tons. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) also expressed optimism that the output in the 2025/2026 crop year could increase by 10% if weather conditions are favorable.
However, in the opposite direction, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) released data showing that global coffee exports in the current crop year have decreased slightly by 0.3%, a signal that actual supply is not really excess as forecast. In addition, the fact that the Brazilian Crop Forecasting Agency (Conab) previously cut the estimated Arabica output in 2025 to 35.2 million bags is still a "core" supporting prices that cannot be deeply reduced immediately.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that world coffee output in the 2025/2026 crop year will increase by 2.5%, but with inventories in major consumer markets such as the US being tightened due to tariff and transportation issues, coffee prices are likely to continue to fluctuate strongly within a narrow range before determining a clear trend by the end of the year.
