After the end of the 13th week of 2025 with both Robusta and Arabica going down, domestic coffee prices opened today (March 21) slightly increased from 600 - 800 VND/kg, bringing the purchase price to nearly 132,000 - 133,000 VND/kg. Meanwhile, the world market still recorded many unstable factors regarding weather and inventory.
Domestic coffee prices increase by 600 - 800 VND/kg
On the morning of March 31, 2025, domestic coffee prices continued to increase, fluctuating around 132,000 - 133,000 VND/kg. Average coffee prices in localities are as follows:
Dak Lak: 133,000 VND/kg, up 700 VND.
Lam Dong: 132,000 VND/kg, up 800 VND.
Gia Lai: 132,800 VND/kg, up 600 VND.
Dak Nong: 133,000 VND/kg, up 700 VND.
Although domestic prices have increased, the general context still depends largely on world floor developments, as well as weather information in important coffee growing areas.
London Robusta and New York Arabica coffee prices
Robusta market ( London)
The closing session of the week (March 29) recorded Robusta's May 2025 futures at 5,337 USD/ton, down to 178 USD compared to 5,515 USD/ton last week.
After climbing to a high of 5,735 USD/ton a month ago, this market is in a series of 5 consecutive weeks of downward adjustments.
Technically, Robusta hit the $5,265 support level last Thursday and sought to buy at $2,290, which is unlikely to fall further.
Arabica market (New York)
Arabica closed the 13th week at 379.95 cents/lb, down from 391.40 cents/lb last week, ending the cycle of "one week's increase, one week's decrease" for 5 consecutive weeks.
Technically, the 370 cent/lb mark is playing an important support role on the New York Stock Exchange.
Forecasts of rain in Brazil next week have eased concerns about shortages, sending Arabica prices to a one-month low.
Factors dominating the coffee market
The developments in the coffee market are currently dominated by supply, inventory, weather, as well as speculative psychology. The European Coffee Federation (ECF) reported that inventories at major ports in Belgium, Germany, France, Italy and Spain fell 8.25% in February 2025, to around 7.392 million bags. In addition, the inventory of Arabica coffee certified on the New York exchange also fell to a significant low, to only 777,817 bags.
Meanwhile, Marex Solutions forecasts that Vietnam's Robusta output in the 2025/26 crop could increase by 7.9% to 28.8 million bags, while Brazil is expected to increase by 13.6%, reaching 25 million bags. The new Robusta/Conilon harvest in Brazil will start from April and is at risk of creating supply pressure if the coffee harvest exceeds domestic demand. Brazil's Arabica crop (usually starting in the middle of the year) is also supported by the re-umid weather.
In terms of climate conditions, Brazil is forecast to see widespread rain, helping to reduce drought, especially in the Arabica growing area of Minas Gerais and Robusta growing states such as Espirito Santo and Bahia. On the contrary, the Central Highlands (Vietnam) is having less rain in the period from March 21 to 31, raising concerns about the health of coffee trees. According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 75% chance of maintaining neutral (ENSO-neutral) conditions until April, after which La Niña could form from September, affecting temperatures and rainfall in the final period of the year.
In addition to weather factors, market sentiment also plays an important role. After Robusta and Arabica coffee prices both peaked last month, funds and investors began taking profits, causing the market to experience "defending" trading sessions.
"Weather" is still the main driver of price fluctuations, as news about rain or drought continuously changes expectations for global coffee supply and demand.
Prospects and forecasts
In the short term, Robusta prices may temporarily stagnate near the support zone of 5,265 - 5,290 USD/ton, while Arabica needs to keep the 370 cent/lb mark to avoid falling further.
In the medium term, if supply is truly increased sharply when Brazil enters the Robusta/Conilon harvest, the downward pressure may increase. However, global demand remains stable, along with low inventories, which will limit price declines.
In the long term, the shift of the ENSO model to La Niña by the end of 2025 could affect the weather in growing areas, leading to unpredictable price fluctuations.
