Domestic coffee prices slightly decreased
After a series of price increases, domestic coffee prices have decreased slightly by VND100/kg, currently fluctuating from VND132,900 - VND134,000/kg. The purchase price in the areas is as follows:
Dak Nong: 134,000 VND/kg.
Dak Lak, Gia Lai: 133,900 VND/kg (-100 VND).
Lam Dong: 132,900 VND/kg.
Although there were slight decreases in the two provinces and cities, in general, domestic coffee prices remained unchanged after alternating increases and decreases.
World coffee prices remain positive
Robusta on the London Stock Exchange
In the trading session on March 24, 2025 ( GMT) at ICE Futures Europe:
July 2025 term (JUL25): 5,526 USD/ton (+0. 40%), volume of 818 lots.
September 2025 term (SEP25): 5,471 USD/ton (+0.385%), volume of 289 lots.
November 2025 term (NOV25): 5,388 USD/ton (+0.447%), volume of 37 lots.
January 2026 term (JAN26): 5,260 USD/ton (+0.324%), volume of 29 lots.
Thus, Robusta prices have surpassed the 5,500 USD/ton mark for the July 2025 term - a sign that market sentiment is still optimistic, despite the not-so-large trading volume.
Arabica on the New York Stock Exchange
With Coffee C® Futures at ICE Futures U.S., the terms from May 2025 to the end of 2025 are around 390 - 395 cents/lb (equivalent to 3.90 - 3.95 USD/lb). This is a high price area compared to the historical series before 2024. The market is continuing to monitor the weather in Brazil - the world's largest Arabica supplier - due to concerns about a shortage of supply.
Reasons for coffee prices maintaining a peak
Recently, the situation of tight supply stems from the fact that coffee output in many key exporting countries such as Vietnam, Brazil and Indonesia has been affected by climate change, causing a total supply shortage compared to demand.
In addition, global consumption demand remains stable, especially in the European and North American markets, keeping prices high.
On the other hand, the inventory of standard coffee on exchanges is decreasing, creating a speculative psychology of increasing prices.
All of these factors resonate, causing Robusta London to surpass the 5,500 USD/ton mark and Arabica New York to maintain the 390 - 395 cents/lb range. but the value increased by 31.6% due to the average export price of up to 5,392 USD/ton.
According to preliminary reports from a number of enterprises, Vietnam's coffee exports continue to improve. Notably, high-quality Arabica products are being offered for sale at record prices, especially specialties (Specialty Coffee). This has attracted farmers in some places to expand Arabica growing areas, in order to take advantage of market demand.
Coffee price forecast
In the short term, the domestic market may fluctuate slightly according to the progress of export collection and purchasing activities of roasted and ground enterprises. In the medium term, if the weather in coffee growing areas is forecast to be more favorable, supply may improve, leading to the possibility of prices gradually slowing down.
However, due to the current low inventory on the market and unchanged consumption demand, coffee prices are likely to continue to remain high, at least until the end of this year's crop. In the long term, analysts say any adverse supply fluctuations especially in Brazil could trigger a new rally.
