Domestic coffee prices slightly decreased
After yesterday's trading session, domestic coffee prices have decreased by 100 - 200 VND/kg, currently ranging from 132,800 - 133,800 VND/kg. Specifically:
Dak Lak, Gia Lai: 133,700 VND/kg (down 100 VND).
Lam Dong: 132,800 VND/kg (down 100 VND).
Dak Nong: 133,800 VND/kg (down 200 VND).
Although it decreased compared to yesterday, the price of over 130,000 VND/kg is still considered the highest in many years. The domestic market is being affected by mixed developments on the Robusta and Arabica exchanges.
Mixed world coffee prices
Robusta on the London Stock Exchange
Data from the 25.3.2025 session ( GMT time) at ICE Futures Europe shows that Robusta prices have turned to decrease:
May 2025 term (05/25): 5,501 USD/ton (-14 USD, -0.25%).
July 2025 term (07/25): 5,492 USD/ton (-12 USD, -0.22%).
September 2025 term (09/25): 5,444 USD/ton (-6 USD, -0.11%).
November 2025 term (11/25): 5,356 USD/ton (-8 USD, -0.15%).
Despite a slight decrease compared to the previous session, Robusta prices are still at a high level of over 5,300 USD/ton. The trading volume is quite stable, mainly focusing on near-term contracts (May and July).
Arabica on the New York Stock Exchange
In contrast to Robusta's trend, Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange. still increased:
May 2025 term (05/25): 393.40 cents/lb (+2.00 cents, +0.51%).
July 2025 term (07/25): 387.40 cents/lb (+2.10 cents, +0.55%).
September 2025 term (09/25): 380.75 cents/lb (+1.95 cents, +0.51%).
December 2025 term (12/25): 371.25 cents/lb (+2.40 cents, +0.65%).
Arabica's increase was maintained thanks to concerns about limited supply in Brazil - the world's number one Arabica producer. Arabica prices are still fluctuating between 3.70 - 4.00 USD/lb, much higher than in 2023 - 2024.
Reasons for opposite coffee prices
Recently, the Robusta market has increased too quickly, so it has entered a slight adjustment phase when buying pressure slowed down, especially after the price exceeded the 5,500 USD/ton mark.
Meanwhile, Arabica continues to increase as investors worry that unfavorable weather in Brazil could affect output.
In addition, the demand for high-quality coffee in major markets remains strong, creating a driving force for Arabica. In addition, some traders tend to take profits on Robusta to transfer cash flow to Arabica, causing the prices of the two types of coffee to move in opposite directions.
Coffee price forecast
In the short term, domestic coffee prices may continue to fluctuate slightly around the 132,000 - 134,000 VND/kg range, depending on the purchasing activities of export enterprises. In the medium term, global supply signals will determine the price trend of Robusta and Arabica.
If the new crop in Brazil improves, Arabica can stagnate, while demand for Robusta coffee continues to increase thanks to a stable consumption market in Asia. However, experts say that both types of coffee are still at a high price level due to reduced floor inventories and the risk of weather fluctuations.
