Domestic coffee prices: Looking back at the week of price increases
On October 5, domestic coffee prices continued to remain stable at the weekend closing price of VND 116,900/kg.
The past trading week (September 29 - October 3) was marked by strong price increases, with each session increasing by an average of VND1,600 to VND1,800/kg, dispelling concerns after the collapse in mid-September.
Prices have had an impressive recovery, with a net increase of about 400 VND/kg compared to the beginning of the week (116,500 VND/kg) and significantly narrowing the gap compared to the peak in August.
Compared to the peak in August, the current price has only decreased net by VND 5,100/kg compared to the historical mark of VND 122,000/kg, showing that the market is continuing to recover losses caused by the major correction.
World coffee prices: Summary of recovery week
Due to Sunday, the international market was not active. Year-end data confirmed a strong recovery week with significant gains:
Robusta ( London): This type of coffee was the main driver of the market last week, with an impressive net increase of 326 USD/ton (from 4,201 USD/ton to 4,527 USD/ton). This spike shows that Robusta supply pressure is at a very high level.
Arabica (New York): Also growing strongly, reaching a net increase of 12.70 US cents/lb for the week.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
The skyrocketing price increase last week is the result of strong control of price support factors, completely overwhelming downward pressure.
These factors are creating a strong "push" up prices. First is the record low inventory: The amount of Arabica and Robusta coffee on international exchanges has remained low for many months, creating a risk of a shortage of material supply. Second is trade barriers: The US imposing a 50% tax on imports from Brazil has disrupted the supply chain, forcing importers to find alternative sources at higher prices. Finally, weather risks remain a constant concern: Concerns about the likelihood of La Niña and drought in Brazil ahead of the important flowering period are putting pressure on the 2026/27 crop. In addition, the recent slight decline in total global coffee exports has also reinforced concerns about supply.
However, the market still faces two main downward pressures. The biggest pressure comes from the crop in Vietnam, with the forecast that Robusta output in 2025/26 will be bumper and reach the highest level in 4 years. This factor has created a significant weight but is being overwhelmed by concerns about short-term supply. In addition, after sessions of over-heating up, technical profit-taking activities are also a reason why the market faces fluctuations or short adjustments.
The market is expected to enter the new week with strong growth momentum. With the fact that the basic factors (inventory, tariffs, weather) are all leaning towards price increase, the short-term trend is very positive. However, the volatility will remain high until the market has more clear information about new products from Brazil and Vietnam, according to Barchart.vn.
