Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market this morning - May 12, 2026 - witnessed a spectacular "comeback" after a series of volatile trading days. According to records in key growing areas of the Central Highlands, the price of raw coffee beans has simultaneously rebounded sharply, convincingly regaining the mark of 88,000 VND/kg.
In the Dak Nong (old) area, coffee prices recorded an increase of 1,100 VND, pushing the purchase price to the highest level in the region of 88,200 VND/kg. Dak Lak and Gia Lai provinces both had an increase of 1,000 VND, currently trading stably at the mark of 88,000 VND/kg.
Lam Dong region recorded the strongest increase with 1,200 VND, bringing coffee prices to 87,500 VND/kg. Coupled with this upward momentum, the USD/VND exchange rate at Vietcombank continued to increase by 6 VND, currently listed at 26,099 VND/USD, creating more favorable momentum for export activities.
World coffee prices
Developments on futures exchanges last night were also brilliantly green as inventory bottomed out, triggering a massive buying wave. On the London exchange, Robusta coffee futures for July surged by 90 USD (equivalent to 2.64%), reaching 3,504 USD/ton, officially setting a 2-week high.
At the same pace, the New York exchange witnessed the price of Arabica for July delivery increase by 7.50 cents (equivalent to 2.73%), closing at 282.30 cents/lb. The fact that both exchanges broke through above 2.5% shows that excitement is covering the global market in the face of short-term supply shortages.
The core reason for this increase came from inventory data monitored by the ICE floor falling to a record low. Robusta inventory as of Monday was only 3,687 lots left, the lowest level in nearly 17 months, while Arabica inventory is also anchored at a 2.5-month low.
In addition, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are still a "nozzle" for prices as the Hormuz Strait continues to be blockaded. The disruption of this vital sea route not only pushes up freight rates and insurance premiums but also causes fertilizer and fuel prices to escalate, directly putting pressure on the cost of goods sold by international roasters.
In addition, although Brazil forecasts the next crop very well, actual exports in March decreased sharply from 10% to 31%, showing that the actual supply to the market is currently being significantly tightened.
However, experts still issue warnings about the "ghost" of surplus in the long term. Reputable organizations such as StoneX and Marex still maintain forecasts for a global surplus of up to 10 million bags for 2026 when Brazil officially enters a record harvest season with an expected output of 75.9 million bags. Vietnam's strong export growth in the first 4 months of the year (up 15.8% to 810,000 tons) is also a factor hindering the overheated increase.
