Domestic coffee prices today
The domestic coffee market today, Sunday, May 10, did not record new price fluctuations because international exchanges are on the weekend holiday.
After a slight decrease in yesterday's session, the average purchase price for the entire Central Highlands region is currently anchored at the threshold of 87,200 VND/kg.
In Dak Nong province (old), coffee is holding the highest level in the region at 87,300 VND/kg. Dak Lak and Gia Lai provinces both maintain stable trading levels at 87,100 VND/kg.
In the Lam Dong region alone, the listed coffee price is lower at 86,500 VND/kg. Meanwhile, pepper prices continue to stand firm in the high price range from 143,000 - 144,000 VND/kg and the USD/VND exchange rate at Vietcombank is stable at 26,087.
World coffee prices
In the world market, due to the London and New York exchanges closing for holidays, the reference figures remained unchanged according to the closing level of last weekend's session.
Robusta futures for July on the London exchange closed the week at 3,414 USD/ton, slightly up about 1.5% compared to the previous week thanks to support from actual goods shortages.
Conversely, Arabica prices on the New York exchange recorded a week of sharp decline of 4.3%, falling to 274.80 cents/lb as Brazil officially entered a new harvest season. The gap between Robusta and Arabica is tending to narrow as the Robusta flow appears more persistent in the face of macroeconomic fluctuations.
Coffee market outlook
As for market prospects, the "ghost" of oversupply is beginning to cover long-term forecasts. The Vietnam Coffee - Cocoa Association (VICOFA) and international organizations such as Marex Group all predict that world coffee production in the 2025/26 crop year may reach a record level of about 10.8 million tons (equivalent to more than 180 million bags), a sharp increase compared to the previous crop year.
This boom mainly comes from Brazil's Robusta production with a season forecast of up to 75.9 million bags. In Vietnam, exports in the first 4 months of the year grew impressively by 15.8% to 810,000 tons, also partly reducing the pressure of goods scarcity for large buyers, causing them to start shifting their expectations to new supply from South America.
However, technical "bottlenecks" are still playing the role of a protective net to help prices not fall vertically.
ICE-surveillance Arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-month low of 470,00045 bags, while Robusta inventories also hit a 16.5-month low of 3,724 lots.
In addition, the fact that the Strait of Hormuz has not yet been officially completely cleared continues to put pressure on sea transportation and fertilizer costs, forcing importers to maintain purchase prices high enough to ensure the supply chain. It is predicted that in the coming weeks, when new crops from Brazil begin to flood the market, coffee prices may be under tremendous fluctuation pressure and it will be difficult to maintain a price range above 85,000 VND/kg if there is no further supporting information.
