Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market on the morning of May 23, 2026, received a major boost when purchasing prices simultaneously surged strongly on a large scale.
After the slight and somewhat cautious recovery of the previous trading session, soybean kernel prices in key Central Highlands provinces added from 1,200 to 1,300 VND/kg, helping the market officially regain the 88,000 VND/kg mark.
Specifically, in Dak Nong province (old), coffee prices recorded an increase of 1,300 VND, pushing the purchase price to 88,100 VND/kg and continuing to maintain the highest position in the whole region.
Dak Lak province also reached the milestone of 88,000 VND/kg after increasing by 1,300 VND. Gia Lai and Lam Dong provinces respectively recorded purchase prices of 87,900 VND/kg and 87,400 VND/kg after recovering by 1,200 VND compared to yesterday's session.
Contrary to the boom of coffee, pepper prices today stood still at the mark of 142,000 VND/kg, while the USD/VND exchange rate at Vietcombank maintained stability at 26,130 VND/USD.
World coffee prices
Developments on futures exchanges last night showed a dramatic opposite situation between the two main coffee flows.
The London exchange became the main driving force for domestic prices when Robusta futures for July delivery increased by 57 USD (equivalent to 1.68%), closing at 3,456 USD/ton.
Conversely, the New York exchange continued to face slight downward adjustment pressure as Arabica futures for July delivery lost an additional 1.05 cent (equivalent to 0.38%), falling to 272.35 cents/lb. The fact that Robusta reversed the trend and accelerated above 1.5% clearly reflects investors' concern about the actual nut supply situation.
Coffee price assessment
The core cause of this strong differentiation stems from complex weather developments that directly affect large production areas.
In Vietnam, the weather forecasting agency forecasts that recent rains in the key growing region of the Central Highlands are extremely scarce and scattered. The serious shortage of rainfall during the period when coffee trees are bearing young fruit has raised great concerns about year-end harvest yields, forcing speculative funds to boost purchases for defense.
In addition, the market also received support from the warning of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) about 82% chance of El Niño phenomenon appearing and 67% probability of turning into "Super El Niño", which could delay the rainy season and affect the flowering process of the next crop year in Brazil. Arabica inventories on the ICE exchange continued to fall to a 3-month low of 449,567 bags along with transport congestion through the Strait of Hormuz also contributing to maintaining a solid support for prices.
However, the breakthrough momentum of international prices is still significantly restrained by pressure from the new harvest that is taking place favorablely in South America. Reputable organizations such as StoneX and Marex Group Plc continuously maintain forecasts for a global super-surplus crop year of up to 10 million bags in 2026 thanks to Brazil's record output expected to reach 75.9 million bags. Along with the fact that Vietnam's export growth in the first 4 months of the year increased sharply by 15.8% to 810,000 tons, today's increase is mainly a short-term reaction to weather risks in the Central Highlands.
