Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market this morning, May 22, 2026, interrupted the deep decline of the first sessions of the week with a simultaneous recovery in the Central Highlands region. Although the increase could not completely compensate for previous losses, the return of green color still brought a more positive psychology to growers.
Dak Nong (old): Increased by another 700 VND, reaching 86,800 VND/kg, continuing to maintain the highest position in the whole region.
Dak Lak and Gia Lai: Both increased by another 700 VND, currently trading stably at the 86. 700 VND/kg mark.
Lam Dong: Purchasing at 86. 200 VND/kg after recording a similar increase.
While coffee prices fluctuate, pepper prices still maintain a solid sideways state at the level of 142,000 VND/kg. The USD/VND exchange rate at Vietcombank slightly decreased by 1 VND, listed at 26,130 VND/USD.
World market: Two exchanges break through 2%
In contrast to the somewhat cautious upward momentum of the domestic market, international futures exchanges last night witnessed a strong acceleration session from the technical bottom.
London Stock Exchange (Robusta): July futures (RMN26) closed strongly up +71 USD (+2.13%), reaching 3,399 USD/ton.
New York Stock Exchange (Arabica): July futures (KCN26) surged by an additional +5.10 cent (+1.90%), reaching 273.40 cents/lb.
Market outlook
The direct cause of the massive buying wave on both international exchanges stems from extreme weather warnings. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates that there is a 82% chance that El Niño will appear and last until the end of this year, with a 67% probability of turning into a "Super El Niño". Traders are concerned that this phenomenon will slow down the rainy season in Brazil in September and October, seriously affecting the flowering process of coffee trees and directly threatening the yield of the 2026/27 crop year.
This information immediately triggered a short covering wave from large hedge funds, temporarily overwhelming the psychological pressure from the 10-million sack surplus forecast of StoneX earlier. In addition, the actual supply support is still very tight when Arabica inventories on the ICE floor fell to a 3-month low (451,225 sacks), combined with prolonged blockades in the Strait of Hormuz continuing to push logistics costs and fertilizer prices to high levels. In the opposite direction, Robusta's increase was still somewhat hampered by Vietnam's export data for the first 4 months of the year increasing sharply by 15.8% and London floor inventory just recovering to a 5-week peak.
