Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market on May 19, 2026 recorded a very strong decline session, completely cutting off the accumulation momentum of the mid-week period.
According to the latest survey data in key growing areas of the Central Highlands, the bulk purchase price simultaneously "evaporated" from 1,400 to 1,700 VND per kg, pushing the average price level throughout the region deeply back to the threshold of 85,400 VND per kg.
Specifically in Dak Nong province (old), coffee prices decreased sharply by 1,700 VND, bringing the purchase level back to 85,500 VND per kg but still maintaining the highest position in the region.
Dak Lak and Gia Lai localities both recorded a deep decrease of 1,700 VND, currently trading stably at the 85,300 VND per kg mark.
Lam Dong area witnessed a decrease of 1,400 VND, pushing soybean kernel prices down to the lowest level in the region at 84,880 VND per kg.
Meanwhile, pepper still maintained stable sideways movement at 142,000 VND per kg and the USD exchange rate listed at Vietcombank slightly increased by 2 VND to 26,109 VND.
World coffee prices
Developments on the two international futures exchanges in the nearest closing session continued to sink into bright red as selling pressure from speculative funds increased sharply.
On the New York exchange, Arabica coffee futures for July 2026 delivery fell another 2.70 cents, equivalent to 1,01%, closing the session at 256.75 cents per pound, officially setting the lowest contract level in nearly 1.5 years.
Sharing the negative trend, the London exchange witnessed Robusta futures for July 2026 delivery plummet by 59 USD, equivalent to 1.75%, falling deeply to the threshold of 3,306 USD per ton, hitting the lowest level in the past 4 weeks. The continuous decline in the last two sessions of the week and the beginning of the new week clearly reflects the panic of speculators before the new supply wave about to land from South America.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
From the perspective of macro analysts, the core reason pushing coffee prices to slide comes from the harvest progress and expectations of Brazil's super-bumper crop.
Major organizations such as StoneX and Marex Group Plc both maintained their forecast for the 2026 crop year. 2027 of this South American nation will reach a record 75.9 million bags, directly expanding the global coffee surplus in 2026 to 10 million bags.
In Vietnam, export growth in the first 4 months of the year, impressively increasing by 15.8% to 810,000 tons, also contributed to easing the fear of Robusta shortage among international roasters.
However, the market still has certain technical support points when Arabica inventories on the ICE exchange just fell to the bottom of 2.75 months with 462,777 bags, Robusta inventories anchored at the bottom of 2 years with 3,631 lots, along with the fact that the Strait of Hormuz continues to close, increasing freight and fertilizer costs to a very high level.
In the short term, domestic coffee prices will continue to be under adjustment pressure and strong fluctuations around 84,000 to 86,000 VND per kg when Brazil's new crops begin to flood the market in June.
