According to the recently released report on the global food sector, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that India will still be the largest rice exporter by 2026 with an expected export turnover of 24.5 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons compared to the previous year and accounting for nearly 40% of global trade. India's rice increase is explained by the bumper harvest, abundant reserves and the most stable prices among major exporting countries.
Meanwhile, Vietnam's rice exports are expected to reach 7.9 million tons due to increased demand from the Chinese and Philippine markets. Thailand's rice exports are expected to reach 7.2 trillion tons, up 200,000 tons compared to last year, mainly in traditional markets such as China and Iraq.
Talking to Lao Dong, economic expert Vu Vinh Phu - former Deputy Director of the Hanoi Department of Commerce, said that Vietnam still has potential to export rice, at least in the next 5-6 years.
However, according to Mr. Phu, Vietnam's rice exports in the future still face some challenges such as climate change, erratic weather that can affect the crop. Besides, it is a challenge of competition from markets that competes with Vietnam for rice exports such as India and Thailand. In addition, tariff policies can also be a challenge for Vietnamese rice exports. "However," the water goes up, "we are not subjective but not too pessimistic. I think ensuring strategic reserves along with the management role of the Ministry of Agriculture and the environment, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the wisdom in negotiation will bring many advantages for rice export in the near future," Phu said.
According to the US Department of Agriculture report, Vietnam could be the world's second rice importer with an expected 4.1 million tons, due to less harvest and increased demand for cheap rice from Cambodia. Regarding this forecast, agricultural expert Hoang Trong Thuy affirmed that large rice imports will not affect food security in Vietnam. Mr. Hoang Trong Thuy explained that the world's rice price is falling to its lowest level, this is an opportunity for Vietnam to import.
"In 2023, in 2024, although we exported over 7 million tons, we still had to import about 1.1 - 1.3 tons of white rice to produce goods and make animal feed. Therefore, this year, the number of imports may increase because the price of pigs this year has many fluctuations and is quite high, so demand may be higher," Mr. Thuy explained.
In addition, the fact that businesses also have a high demand for importing rice for re-export will also increase imported rice output.
